The Times of India

In the backdrop of Donald Trump's tariff threats, uncertainty over India-US trade deal and rising geopolitical tensions, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharamans Union Budget 2026 assumes significance. What are the risks to Indias robust and resilient growth story, and what can Budget 2026 do to mitigate them? We ask economists:

RBI is not among the largest holders of US government debt, with its exposure at about a quarter of Chinas nearly $683 billion holdings. Even so, Indias selling has added fresh momentum to discussions about the place of US sovereign bonds in global investment portfolios.

Gold and silver futures reached record highs on Friday, driven by investor demand for safe-haven assets. A weaker US dollar and anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts further fueled the rally. Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty also contributed to the surge in bullion prices.

The Union Budget 2026 may maintain the fiscal deficit at 4.4% of GDP in FY27, according to Nuvama, as the economy shows fragile momentum. The government might focus on deregulation and disinvestments to support growth, rather than fiscal expansion, with a continued emphasis on sectors like semiconductors and AI.

Indian travelers face a more stringent visa process for China, with new online pre-approval stages and increased scrutiny of financial documents leading to longer processing times and higher rejection rates. Despite these hurdles, interest in diverse Chinese destinations beyond traditional tourist hubs is growing, fueled by improved flight connectivity.

The World Economic Forum is establishing five new Centres for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, including one in Andhra Pradesh, India. These centers will foster collaboration between governments, industry, and experts to develop policy frameworks and pilot projects for emerging technologies.

Industry leaders in pharma and MedTech are urging the government to establish a structured funding framework for R&D ahead of the Union Budget 2026. They emphasize the need for policy changes to reduce cost disadvantages, nurture local innovation, and promote preventive healthcare to achieve India's Viksit Bharat vision.

India was highlighted as a reliable long-term growth anchor at the World Economic Forum, with discussions focusing on geopolitical uncertainty and economic priorities. Leaders and investors recognized India's macroeconomic stability, large market, and reform momentum as key strengths.

Paytm shares tumbled nearly 10% amid speculation about the future of the Payment Infrastructure Development Fund (PIDF) scheme, which reportedly contributes significantly to its operating profit. The company clarified its recognition of PIDF incentives and its strategy to offset potential impacts. Meanwhile, Investec initiated coverage with a 'Buy' rating, citing strong fundamentals.

Amway India is urging the government to formally recognize food and dietary supplements as integral to wellness ahead of the Union Budget 2026. The company calls for rationalized customs duties on imported supplements and ingredients, advocating for tax relief for small direct sellers and increased support for clinical research to bolster India's health and wellness ecosystem.

NATHEALTH urges the government to increase public healthcare spending to over 2.5% of GDP in the Union Budget 2026, emphasizing the need to address the rising burden of non-communicable diseases. The industry body also proposed a Rs 50,000 crore healthcare infrastructure fund and tax deductions for preventive health check-ups to strengthen the sector and foster innovation.

Adani Group stocks tumbled today as the US SEC sought court approval to email summons to Gautam and Sagar Adani. This follows an alleged bribery scheme involving Indian officials for power purchase agreements. The Adani Group had denied the allegations.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the NDA's campaign in Tamil Nadu, asserting voters are ready to oust the corrupt DMK government. Chief Minister M.K. Stalin countered, accusing the NDA of betraying the state and highlighting pending demands, including financial aid and NEET exemption.

Micron Technology's $2.75 billion semiconductor facility in Sanand, Gujarat, is set to begin commercial production by the end of February, with pilot production already underway. India is increasingly seen as a hub for advanced chip design and manufacturing, including complex two-nanometre nodes, supported by strategic global partnerships.

Tharoor, who is reportedly unhappy after Rahul Gandhi did not meet him during his visit to Kochi, will instead attend the Kerala literature festival. The controversy around Tharoor and his reported rift with the party erupted following a series of events that led to the experts connecting dots of the veteran leader's dissatisfaction with his current position in the grand old party.

Gold price prediction today: Golds intraday construct is positive and investors can look to buy on dips, says Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.

Plan your banking ahead! Indian banks will be closed for a four-day holiday from January 23rd to 26th. This includes state-specific holidays like Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose's birthday and Saraswati Puja, the fourth Saturday, Sunday, and Republic Day. While branches are shut, digital services like online banking and ATMs remain accessible for your financial needs.

The Indian Rupee strengthened today against the US Dollar. This rise follows a softening of tariff threats between the US and Europe. Traders noted improved investor sentiment. However, the Rupee still faces pressure from foreign fund outflows. Experts suggest a period of consolidation and possible recovery. The 92.00 level is a key resistance point.

Deloitte is overhauling job titles for all 181,500 US employees starting June 1, 2026, as part of a modernization effort driven by AI. The consulting giant is also introducing a new 'leaders' designation for senior roles. This change aims to better align roles with responsibilities and clarify career paths, though day-to-day work and compensation remain unchanged.

Donald Trump celebrated a new deal for TikTok's US operations, now a majority American-owned joint venture, crediting himself for saving the platform. The agreement, which sees ByteDance retain a minority stake, aims to address national security concerns and avoid a ban for its 200 million American users.

Stock market today: Indian equity benchmarks, Nifty50 and BSE Sensex, opened flat in trade on Friday. While Nifty50 was near 25,250, BSE Sensex was down 50 points. At 9:17 AM, Nifty50 was trading at 25,263.15, down 27 points or 0.11%.

An estimated 60 percent of gold lending remains unregulated. Formal gold loans, by contrast, operate under clear regulatory guidelines and supervision.

In an advisory to passengers, the airline said the suspension could lead to extended wait times, both onboard aircraft and at the airport, as weather conditions continued to affect operations. It added that boarding formalities may be completed in advance so that flights can depart immediately once clearance is granted.

Asian markets rose Friday, buoyed by strong US economic data and easing geopolitical tensions. Dollar weakness boosted safe-haven assets like gold and silver, while emerging markets saw significant inflows. Investor confidence returned to riskier assets amid positive US economic indicators and diplomatic progress between the US and Europe.

Stock market recommendations: Bajaj Broking Research recommends Gokaldas Exports, and Hindustan Unilever as stock picks for today. Heres its view on Nifty and Bank Nifty:

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar met EU ambassadors, emphasizing that stronger India-EU trade, mobility, and security ties will stabilize the global order. He highlighted cooperation on resilient supply chains and public goods like HADR and anti-piracy operations. The upcoming summit is expected to finalize an FTA, a defense partnership, and a mobility agreement.

An FIR in UP details a woman's alleged gang-rape under the guise of 'halala' after an instant triple talaq. The law banning triple talaq has been invoked, alongside provisions for rape and other offenses. This case highlights the legal grey area surrounding halala, a practice not recognized by Indian statutory law.

The Indian Patent Office has rejected AbbVie's patent application for its cancer drug Venetoclax, citing a lack of inventive step and no enhancement in therapeutic efficacy. This decision, if upheld, could allow for the entry of more affordable generic versions of the drug into the Indian market.

A Meitei man visiting his Kuki fiance in Churachandpur was abducted and shot dead on camera, sparking protests and an NIA probe. Graphic footage of the killing circulated widely. The incident occurred amidst ongoing ethnic tensions between Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities in Manipur, highlighting the fragile peace in the region.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will visit India from February 19-21 to strengthen the strategic partnership and discuss bilateral cooperation for the Global South. The leaders pledged to work together for UNSC reforms and peace in Gaza, with Lula also expected to attend the AI summit and a later BRICS summit.

India has strongly condemned the vandalism of its embassy in Zagreb by the Sikhs for Justice group, which attempted to replace the Tricolour with a Khalistan flag. New Delhi has officially raised the matter with Croatian authorities, demanding justice for the perpetrators and emphasizing the inviolability of diplomatic premises.

The Supreme Court has expedited the legal dispute over the Bhojshala Saraswati Temple cum Maulana Kamal Maula Mosque in Dhar, Madhya Pradesh. The court lifted its stay on the case pending with the MP High Court and decoupled it from the Places of Worship Act.

India's upcoming Census 2027 will collect detailed household information, including building materials, amenities like water and sanitation, and ownership status. For the first time since 1931, caste details will be gathered. The houselisting and housing phase runs April-September 2026, with population enumeration in February 2027.

The Supreme Court refused to stop the ED from accessing information from an I-PAC functionary's seized mobile phone, despite pleas of privacy violation. The court stated it knows how to protect innocent citizens. This comes as ED faced interruptions in Kolkata during a search, unlike in Delhi.

Tragedy struck in Ahmedabad as Congress MP Shaktisinh Gohil's nephew, Yashrajsinh Gohil, allegedly shot his wife Rajeshwari accidentally with a licensed revolver. Devastated by her death, he then reportedly took his own life. Police are investigating the incident, which occurred late Wednesday night in their apartment.

India's banks are seeing their deposit base struggle to keep up with surging commercial credit demand. While bank credit still dominates, its share in funding is shrinking as non-bank sources like NBFCs and bond markets gain prominence. This indicates a significant shift in how businesses are financed, with banks facing increasing pressure.

US regulators are seeking court permission to email summons directly to Indian billionaire Gautam Adani and an executive, after India twice refused to serve them. The SEC alleges fraud and a bribery scheme. Adani Group denies the claims, vowing to fight them. India cited procedural issues and questioned the SEC's authority for the rejections.

IndiGo's net profit plummeted 78% to Rs 549 crore in the December quarter, impacted by Rs 577 crore in operational disruptions and Rs 1,000 crore from labour code provisions. Despite flight cuts and fare caps, total income rose 6.7% to Rs 24,541 crore, with the airline carrying 12.4 crore passengers in 2025.