The Economic Times

Gold prices saw a slight uptick on Tuesday, buoyed by a weaker dollar. However, the precious metal is on track for its worst monthly performance in over 17 years. Soaring energy prices have dampened expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut this year, impacting gold's trajectory.

The Indian Rupee experienced a significant drop, breaching the 95 per dollar mark. This marked the steepest decline in 14 years, with the last month being particularly challenging. Despite early gains, strong dollar demand from oil companies and importers pushed the currency to record lows. The Reserve Bank of India intervened to help the rupee close at 94.

The US dollar is surging globally, driven by Middle East conflict and rising oil prices. This makes it the strongest safe asset as global recession fears grow. Other currencies like the Yen, Euro, Australian, and New Zealand dollars are weakening. Investors are seeking safety in the dollar amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Indian stock markets experienced a significant downturn. Overseas investors sold shares heavily, impacting the Sensex and Nifty. Rising crude oil prices and a weakening rupee added to investor concerns. Bank stocks also saw a sharp decline following regulatory changes. Global markets showed mixed reactions to geopolitical developments.

Oil prices are climbing for the fourth day. Brent crude is set for its largest monthly gain ever. U.S. crude futures are also seeing a significant increase. This is driven by supply concerns stemming from the escalating Middle East conflict. Iran's actions have impacted key shipping routes, raising fears of further disruptions to global energy supplies.

Global markets faced a tumultuous month as Middle East tensions fueled fears of rising inflation and slower growth. Oil prices surged to record highs, while Asian shares plunged. Bonds declined significantly due to hawkish interest rate outlooks, and the dollar strengthened. Investors are increasingly concerned about a prolonged conflict.

New RBI curbs on net open rupee positions created volatility in dollar-rupee forwards. Initially, the gap between domestic and overseas rates widened significantly as banks anticipated selling dollars locally. However, this difference narrowed as banks adopted a wait-and-watch approach, expecting potential RBI relief, leading to a near-Friday closing level.

Indian stock markets are closed today for Shri Mahavir Jayanti. This is the first of two market holidays this week. Trading will resume on Friday for Good Friday and again on April 14 for Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti. Several other holidays are scheduled throughout the year. MCX will have a trading break in the first session.

India's insurance regulator is set to introduce basic, no-frills health covers and performance scorecards for insurers and hospitals to address patient criticism and ensure industry viability. These initiatives, designed to enhance transparency and informed choices for policyholders, aim to improve claim settlement times and hospital billing practices, marking a shift towards preventive healthcare.

Fresh rupee loan rates dipped in February, with private banks leading the decline. However, public sector banks increased their lending rates. The easing on outstanding loans has been slower, despite significant repo rate cuts by the RBI over the past year.

XED Executive Development has withdrawn its initial public offering from GIFT City's IFSC due to a cautious investor mood. Despite retail interest, procedural issues and subdued institutional participation led the company to postpone its market debut. The board opted to wait for a more opportune time, citing market volatility and liquidity concerns.

Dubai has unveiled a significant AED 1 billion fiscal package to bolster businesses, especially those in tourism and trade impacted by current conflicts. Effective April 1 for three to six months, the initiative includes a three-month deferment on government fees, hotel sales fees, and Tourism Dirham fees to ease financial burdens and enhance liquidity.

Indian stock markets reacted to global events on Monday. US President Donald Trump's statements on Iran and the escalating Middle East conflict caused uncertainty. Oil prices surged, raising inflation fears. Technology stocks faced pressure. However, comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell offered some support. Financial stocks saw gains following new guidelines for retirement plans.

India faces a widening current account deficit due to high oil import costs. The ongoing Iran conflict exacerbates this situation, impacting foreign inflows. The Reserve Bank of India's measures offer only temporary relief to the rupee. Economists predict a significant widening of the deficit, potentially leading to a balance of payments deficit for the second consecutive year.

JP Morgan and Jefferies have upgraded HDFC Bank, citing attractive valuations after a significant share price decline. Both brokerages see a favorable risk-reward, with JP Morgan highlighting a strong core franchise and Jefferies pointing to potential re-rating catalysts like board clarity and CEO term rollover.

The Reserve Bank of India has postponed new capital market exposure rules. The implementation date is now July 1, 2026. Banks issuing payment commitments to stock exchange clearing corporations will see eased capital adequacy requirements. Capital will only be held on the portion classified as capital market exposure. These changes follow updates to the central bank's credit facilities framework.

The Reserve Bank of India has permitted small finance banks to extend credit to capital market intermediaries. New loan-to-value ratio guidelines have been established for lending against financial assets, including eligible securities. The LTV ceiling for listed shares and convertible debt remains at 60%.

Indian banks experienced a significant slump on Monday following the RBI's directive to curb net-positioning to support the rupee. The Bank Nifty retreated 3.8%, with all constituents losing value. These new regulations, effective April 10, restrict lenders' forex positions, potentially impacting near-term profits and causing short-term volatility.

Bank fixed deposit growth slowed to a two-year low in the December quarter. Private banks led deposit collection. This slowdown may increase funding costs for lenders. However, current and savings account deposits saw improved growth. Experts predict a shift back to fixed deposits due to geopolitical events.

Equity derivatives trading faces higher costs from April 1. New government taxes on futures and options will increase trading expenses. The Reserve Bank of India's stricter lending rules for brokers also take effect. These measures aim to moderate speculation. Trading volumes are expected to decrease, particularly for retail traders. Costs for trading, arbitrage, and hedging will rise.

Banks face significant treasury losses as the 10-year yield surged past 7%. This unexpected jump impacted rupee and bond markets. Traders are cautious, adjusting to a new reality of prolonged conflict and potential inflation. The market now anticipates further yield increases with upcoming government security auctions. Banks are preparing for supply in the next financial year.

U.S. stocks closed mostly lower as President Trump's conflicting messages on Iran and escalating Middle East conflict weighed on markets. Despite optimism over discussions, threats to the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian oil facilities fueled investor concerns. Fed Chair Powell's comments on inflation offered some support, while financial stocks rose on new 401(k) guidelines.

Top Democratic Senators are demanding answers from the Securities and Exchange Commission. They are questioning the sudden exit of the agency's chief enforcement officer. Reports suggest disagreements arose over cases involving cryptocurrency firms with ties to President Donald Trump and his family. Senators Richard Blumenthal and Elizabeth Warren seek records and communications related to these enforcement actions.

The Reserve Bank of India has postponed new acquisition finance rules. The implementation is now set for July 1, 2026. This decision follows feedback from stakeholders. The central bank also updated its capital market exposures framework. These changes aim to clarify lending for mergers and acquisitions. The RBI is refining guidelines for domestic lenders.

Jio Financial Services and BHEL saw significant block deals today as global financial giants traded shares. Morgan Stanley offloaded stakes in both companies, with Goldman Sachs acquiring positions. Other block deals involved BNP Paribas transacting across Siemens Energy India, GMR Airports, LG Electronics India, and Max Healthcare Institute.

BNP Paribas executed block deals in Siemens Energy India, GMR Airports, LG Electronics India and Max Healthcare. Despite institutional buying, all stocks declined, reflecting broader market weakness, profit booking and cautious sentiment across equities during the trading session.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Monday said the U.S. central bank can wait to see how the Iran war affects the economy and inflation, noting that policymakers typically look through shocks such as those from higher oil prices.

Microsoft on Monday unveiled new features in its Copilot research assistant that would allow users to utilize multiple AI models simultaneously within the same workflow, the latest move by the tech giant to improve its AI offering and boost adoption.

Viridian Therapeutics shares slumped 34% to an eight-month low on Monday after its experimental treatment for thyroid eye disease lagged rivals in efficacy in a late-stage study, even as it met the main goal of reducing eye bulging.

Precision-engineered components manufacturer Elmet Group on Monday revealed higher revenue for 2025 in its filing for an initial public offering in the United States, as it looks to tap investor interest in defense-linked businesses.

Sysco said on Monday it would buy catering supplier Jetro Restaurant Depot in a $29 billion deal, including debt, expanding the top U.S. food distributor's reach among price-conscious independent restaurants.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved a higher dose of Biogen's spinal muscular atrophy drug Spinraza, the company said on Monday, after rejecting it last year.

Indian industrial and medical gas maker INOX Air Products is planning to launch a $1 billion initial public offering in Mumbai, and has appointed Kotak, JPMorgan and Citi to manage the IPO, three sources familiar with the matter said.

Groups linked to Russia and Iran are increasingly using cryptocurrency to finance the purchase of low-cost military drones and components, according to a new report from blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis.

Gaming and sports media firm Nazara Technologies on Monday said its board has approved a proposal to raise Rs 500 crore through a preferential issue of warrants.

XED Executive Development, the first company from India's low-tax GIFT City to launch an initial public offering, has withdrawn the IPO after delays with customer verification and weak market sentiments due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, it said on Monday.

Four Nifty500 companiesGraphite India, CreditAccess Grameen, One97 Communications and Nuvoco Vistasreported strong turnarounds in December 2025 quarter, shifting from net losses last year to profits, reflecting improved operational performance and financial recovery across sectors, as per StockEdge data.

Nithin Kamath says predicting winning asset classes is futile, urging investors to diversify and stay invested long-term amid volatility. Weak markets, foreign outflows, rising oil prices and currency pressures are keeping sentiment fragile and downside risks elevated in near term.

Indian markets ended FY26 in the red amid global uncertainty and domestic pressures, with Nifty falling over 5% and Sensex declining 7%. Persistent foreign outflows, weak earnings, high valuations, and a weakening rupee kept sentiment subdued, while escalating tensions involving Iran further worsened the outlook by driving up energy prices and dampening hopes of US rate cuts.

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The Reserve Bank of India's intervention to curb arbitrage trades has triggered a disorderly unwinding of bank positions, causing the rupee to slide. This regulatory action, coupled with global risk-off sentiment and geopolitical tensions, is expected to keep the rupee under pressure for several days. Experts suggest the rupee could depreciate by around 10% in this cycle.

The Indian rupee fell to a record low for the third straight session on Monday, finding only fleeting relief from the central bank's tightening of banks' forex position caps, as the outlook for Asian currency remained weak amid the Middle East war.

Indian government bonds extended their selloff on Monday, closing out a rough financial year, on bets that a protracted Middle East war would upend the government's fiscal plans and raise interest rates after the rupee plunged past 95 per dollar.

Amid global market turmoil over the Middle East conflict, Nvidia trades at its cheapest price-to-earnings multiple since before the AI boom. Shares have fallen nearly 20% from October highs, reflecting broader investor caution. While the drop may signal a bargain, elevated oil prices, inflation fears, and potential interest-rate hikes add uncertainty to the AI-driven rally.

The Indian rupee slipped past 95 against the US dollar, driven by structural imbalances, foreign outflows, and high oil prices. RBI-imposed limits on banks forex positions aim to curb speculation and arbitrage. A further slide toward 100 could pressure import-reliant sectors and financial markets, while exporters like IT and pharma may benefit. Market experts warn the rupee remains under sustained stress.

Gold prices saw a relief rally on Monday, gaining Rs 2,000 per 10 gram after a massive 27% correction from lifetime highs. While geopolitical tensions offer support, rising crude prices and delayed US Fed rate cuts suggest only a limited recovery rather than a fresh breakaway rally for the metal.

European shares were little changed on Monday ahead of local inflation data, while investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East war that has upended global markets.

The Indian rupee faced pressure on Monday. Corporates exploited arbitrage opportunities between onshore and non-deliverable forward markets. This emerged after the Reserve Bank of India tightened banks' forex positions. The rupee hit a record low against the US dollar. Importers also contributed to the currency's decline. This situation created attractive trading windows for businesses.