Markets / The Economic Times
While many were talking about the need for interest rate cuts, the real issue at this point was the slowdown in consumption. The government has put money in the hands of people at the lower end of the income spectrum through tax reductions. This was the need of the hour and, in that context, it was the right budget for this stage of the economic cycle.
There was a visible shift in tilt towards supporting consumption through lower taxes on middle class households, relative to the public capex-driven growth push witnessed over the past few years. Through this budget, the consumption story gets the much-needed push, while the capex story continues broadly as earlier.
The budget aims to balance fiscal discipline, infrastructure growth, and middle-class support. It highlights a target to reduce the fiscal deficit, increase capital expenditure, and overhaul the new tax regime to boost consumption. The focus on growth with fiscal prudence is set to enhance economic prospects.
First, the budget. It can be dissected into three C's - consolidation, consumption, and capex. On the consolidation front, the budget is firmly on track, with FY25 fiscal deficit at 4.8% of gross domestic product (GDP), expected to be further lower at 4.4% in FY26.
Threshold limit of tax deducted at source (TDS) on dividend income from MFs has been doubled to 10,000. Now, there will be zero TDS on dividend income of up to 10,000.
Niftys Realty index jumped 3.4%, while Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) and Consumer Durables indices were up about 3% each. The Nifty Auto index gained 1.9%. Benchmark Nifty ended 0.1% lower.
My budget ritual is to come to the office and watch the budget and hope that there aren't any big negatives on the capital markets side particularly. This year, there were no announcements linked to the capital markets and a few small ones related to startups.
Tax officials would scrutinise unreported crypto earnings during searches and reassessments, while from next year crypto platforms and intermediaries would begin reporting large deals to the I-T department as banks, mutual funds, and property registrars do.
Shares of consumption-linked companies such as consumer goods and automobiles were the top gainers, while investors cut exposure to industrials and capital goods.
Valuation, or price-to-earnings (PE) multiple as it is commonly called, is a combination of numbers and narratives. While numbers don't change every day, narratives do change often. Post-Budget 2025, the narrative about some sectors has changed. Should they be valued more or not is a complex question. But there are nuances that will help you figure out whether you should be gung-ho about a sector which has got relief in the budget. Or not.
Global e-commerce giant Amazon on Saturday sold shares of business services provider Quess Corp for Rs 46 crore through an open market transaction, while promoter billionaire Prem Watsa promoted Fairfax Capital increased its holding in the company.
The Finance Ministers Budget announcements drove gains across FMCG, automobiles, consumer durables, insurance, and green energy stocks.
The governments proposal to allow 100% FDI in the insurance sector will attract global insurers, boosting employment and increasing insurance penetration. New entrants will expand into untapped markets, strengthening their customer base while enhancing life and asset protection for Indian citizens. This move is expected to drive economic growth and improve financial security across the country.
The Nifty closed 26 points lower on Budget day amid high volatility. Analysts see strong support at 23,300, with resistance at 23,50023,600. A decisive breakout could push Nifty toward 24,000, while a drop below 23,280 may trigger panic.
Edelweiss Mutual Fund CEO Radhika Gupta highlighted market volatility, midcap losses, and global uncertainty, while praising the Budget 2025 tax cut. She emphasized its focus on boosting consumption by increasing the tax exemption limit from Rs 7.5 lakh to Rs 12 lakh.
Ashishkumar Chauhan of NSE praises the Budget, highlighting its tax relief for the middle class, increase in capital expenditure to Rs 11.2 lakh crore, and control of fiscal deficit at 4.4%. He appreciates the balance between growth-oriented measures and fiscal responsibility, giving the Budget a perfect score of 10 out of 10.
Budget 2025: The Union Budget 2025 keeps existing crypto tax rules unchanged, maintaining the 1% TDS and loss offset restrictions. Industry leaders express concerns over investor challenges, talent migration, and heavy taxation, while regulatory updates signal a step toward formal governance.
Ravi Dharamshi of ValueQuest Investment Advisors highlights real wages below pre-COVID levels and the necessity of supporting consumers in the Budget. He emphasizes the importance of private investment and real estate in sustaining economic momentum. There is an observable shift in market focus from capex to consumption-related themes, warranting cautious investments in consumption stocks.
Sensex and Nifty closed flat Saturday as gains in consumption stocks from tax cuts were offset by infrastructure losses after a modest capex hike.
Budget 2025 prioritizes consumption over capex, impacting market trends. Tax relief boosts disposable income, benefiting FMCG and retail stocks, while infrastructure and capital goods decline. Analysts stress fiscal prudence, RBI policies, and global factors in shaping long-term market momentum.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's announcement to raise the threshold for tax collected at source (TCS) on remittances under RBIs Liberalized Remittance Scheme (LRS) from Rs 7 lakh to Rs 10 lakh is expected to reduce the upfront tax burden for investors. Experts say this move supports international fund investments, offering geographic diversification and a hedge against currency fluctuations.
Raamdeo Agrawal called the Budget brilliant, citing its positive impact on capital markets. He noted economic growth projections of over 7% and a target of 8% compounded growth through Atmanirbhar Bharat. Aligned with India's 2047 vision, the Budget is seen as a strategic move for sustainable growth and market development.
NSE's chief executive and managing director Ashish Chauhan on Saturday welcomed tax proposals in the Union budget, saying it will help increase flows into the markets.
Budget: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman raised the TCS threshold on remittances under RBIs Liberalized Remittance Scheme (LRS) from Rs 7 lakh to Rs 10 lakh. She also proposed removing TCS on remittances for education if funded by a loan from a specified financial institution, easing the financial burden on students and families managing overseas education expenses.
Modi stocks: Budget 2025 shifts focus from capex-driven growth to boosting consumption, benefiting FMCG and consumer stocks while capex-linked sectors like rail, defence, and infrastructure decline. Analysts see potential urban consumption growth but question long-term capex sustainability.
The government aims to hit an 8% growth rate to achieve Viksit Bharat by 2047. Focus is on tax relief and creating job opportunities by expanding Global Capability Centres to tier II and III cities. The budget boosts consumption by offering tax exemptions for individuals earning up to Rs 12 lakh annually.
With the Finance Minister announcing the tax relief of up to 12 lakh under the new tax regime, the market experts said that this measure leaves more money in the hands of people which in turn could boost broking, AMCs as investments could increase with higher disposable income, which should go back to the economy.
Indian Hotels: Hotel and tourism stocks surged up to 10% as Budget 2025 announced major tourism sector boosts. Key measures include developing 50 top tourist sites, expanding MUDRA loans for homestays, enhancing medical tourism, and launching a modified UDAN scheme for regional connectivity. Investors anticipate strong sector growth, job creation, and improved infrastructure.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman raised the income tax exemption limit to 12 lakh in Budget 2025, benefiting millions and potentially increasing equity investments. However, analysts caution that market impact depends on broader economic conditions and investor behavior.
The government set a capex budget of Rs 11.2 lakh crore for the next fiscal year, slightly up from Rs 11.1 lakh crore in FY25. Following the announcement, shares of L&T, J Kumar Infraprojects, Ahluwalia Contracts, and KEC International dropped up to 5%. KNR Construction and H.G. Infra Engineering erased earlier gains, correcting up to 6.4% by 2:15 pm.
The budget continues the trend of fiscal prudence with a focus on reducing fiscal deficits over the next six years. While there is a short-term boost to consumer relief, there is a slight reduction in capital expenditure, impacting market sentiment towards capex stocks.
An expert advises investors to reassess their asset allocation strategies amid market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainties. Instead of reacting impulsively to budget announcements, they should align investments with long-term goals and risk tolerance. A disciplined approach can help navigate short-term fluctuations while ensuring financial stability and growth in an unpredictable economic environment.
Finance Minister: India's alternative investment landscape highlights the government's focus on promoting innovation, entrepreneurship, and economic growth.
Vijay Kedia emphasizes the need to think beyond smaller financial figures like Rs 1 lakh crore, advocating for discussions in trillions to aim for a $30-40 trillion economy. He believes the budget's focus on consumption over capex won't significantly boost the market and sees the current changes as insufficient for substantial economic growth.
Jewellery stocks surged up to 9% after the Union Budget 2025 reduced tariff duties from 25% to 20%. Analysts expect this move to boost domestic demand, benefiting luxury and gems sectors while promoting fair trade practices.
Zomato and Swiggy shares surged up to 10% after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced an income tax exemption for individuals earning up to 12 lakh. Analysts expect this move to boost consumption, benefiting FMCG, retail, and consumer-driven sectors.
Union Budget 2025 targets Rs 55,000 crore in PSU dividends for FY25, rising to Rs 69,000 crore in FY26, highlighting government reliance on PSU earnings. The nil tax rate extends to Rs 12 lakh, benefiting taxpayers. However, the modest capex increase to Rs 11.2 lakh crore fell short of expectations, disappointing market watchers.
In her Budget on February 1, 2025, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman introduced significant tax cuts to encourage middle-class consumption, while setting a fiscal deficit target of 4.4% of GDP for FY26. The government plans to forgo Rs 1 lakh crore in direct tax revenue and Rs 2,600 crore in indirect taxes to lighten the financial load on individuals and businesses.
Nilesh Shah, MD & CEO of Envision Capital, highlights the budget's focus on consumption with tax cuts raising exemption limits. This measure is expected to boost the middle class and lower the fiscal deficit, indirectly enhancing capital expenditure by reducing the cost of capital and fostering investment.
Companies like VA Tech Wabag, L&T, and Ion Exchange (India) are set to play crucial roles in infrastructure development, enhancing public health, agriculture, and industrial growth through a reliable water supply. According to Oneeka Medh, Research Analyst at Samco Securities, these firms will benefit from increased investments in water management outlined in the Union Budget 2025.
Aiyar acknowledges tax relief but questions its long-term impact. He criticizes the high exemption limit and Bihar focus as politically driven. Market reactions remain uncertain, with global risks outweighing domestic measures.
The budget is hailed as the best in 20 years, aimed at boosting consumption through substantial tax benefits. The move is expected to enhance the economy by increasing rural income, supporting agriculture, and encouraging private sector capex, while fiscal deficit reduction allows for possible aggressive rate cuts by RBI.
Union Budget 2025 brings opportunities for several sectors. Auto stocks may benefit from increased income tax slabs. Consumer durables, healthcare, and textile stocks could see a boost if consumption picks up. Insurance stocks gained from the increase in FDI to 100%. Agriculture, fishery, green energy, and water management sectors also stand to gain from targeted government initiatives.
Maruti Suzuki shares surged nearly 7% after reporting its highest-ever monthly sales of 2,12,251 units in January 2025, up from 1,99,364 units a year ago. The record-breaking figures included 1,77,688 domestic sales, 7,463 units sold to other OEMs, and 27,100 exports, reflecting strong demand and solidifying Marutis market leadership in the auto sector.
Defense stocks fell up to 9% after the governments Rs 4.92 lakh crore defense budget for FY26 disappointed investors. HAL, BEL, BHEL, and Bharat Dynamics declined as capital expenditure growth remained modest. Analysts expected higher allocations. The market also turned negative post-budget.
Budget documents reveal that railway capex remains unchanged at Rs 2.5 lakh crore. State-run RVNL, expected to benefit from a capex hike, was the biggest loser, dropping 9%. Ircon shares fell 8%, while Texmaco, IRFC, Titagarh Rail, and Jupiter Wagons declined between 5-7%, reflecting investor disappointment over the stagnant infrastructure allocation.