The Economic Times

Bitcoin slipped to nearly $78,800, down over 6% in 24 hours, as markets reacted to the Fed leadership change and rising geopolitical tensions. Risk-off sentiment deepened after Kevin Warsh was named the next Fed Chair, pressuring major altcoins and dragging global crypto market capitalisation below $2.7 trillion.

India's economic growth is shifting focus from consumption to manufacturing and investment. Structural reforms have boosted consumption selectively. The next phase requires a holistic approach to manufacturing, encouraging entrepreneurship in less developed regions. Attracting domestic and foreign capital through tax reforms is crucial. Income growth driven by manufacturing and exports will sustainably revive consumption.

Railway stocks saw a rise on Sunday, February 1. Investors are optimistic about the upcoming Union Budget. Expectations are high for increased government spending on infrastructure, especially railways and transport. This anticipated capital expenditure push is driving the positive sentiment in railway stocks. The budget is expected to focus on projects like high-speed rail and freight corridors.

Sun Pharma shares rose sharply on Sunday after the company reported a 16% YoY rise in Q3 net profit to Rs 3,369 crore, supported by strong India business and improved margins. The firm also declared an interim dividend of Rs 11 per share, further boosting sentiment despite cautious institutional activity.

The Defence Secretary has indicated a potential 20% increase in the FY27 defence budget to maintain operational readiness and strengthen self-reliance amid ongoing global tensions.

Metal stocks tumbled on Budget Sunday as gold, silver and copper prices slumped, dragging Hindustan Copper down 19% and knocking the Nifty Metal index lower. The sell-off followed a sharp correction in commodities triggered by a stronger dollar and market jitters after Donald Trump named Kevin Warsh as his pick for the next US Federal Reserve chair.

Market expert Sandip Sabharwal anticipates the upcoming Union Budget will maintain the status quo, with no major reform surprises due to geopolitical uncertainties and foreign fund outflows. He stresses the urgent need to address FPI outflows and tax-related concerns to restore investor confidence and financial stability.

Bank of Baroda reported a 4.39% rise in Q4 net profit to Rs 5,443 crore, driven by reduced provisions. Despite a 15% loan growth, net interest income saw minimal growth due to margin compression. The bank anticipates exceeding its FY26 loan growth target and aims to improve its Net Interest Margin.

Gold and silver extended their steep selloff on MCX, with futures sliding 6% and gold ETFs crashing up to 16% as a surging US dollar and profit-taking hit sentiment. In the previous session, silver plunged as much as 27% (Rs 1,07,968), marking its biggest single-day crash ever and pulling prices back below the Rs 3 lakh markjust a day after the metal had surged to a record high of Rs 4 lakh.

Indian stocks saw mixed trading ahead of the federal budget. Investors watched for signals on public spending and support for export sectors. Metal stocks faced selling pressure. Experts anticipate a growth-oriented budget with potential focus on exports and defense. Global markets experienced declines. FIIs were net buyers while DIIs were net sellers.

As Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presents the Union Budget 2026, top brokerages have flagged 11 technical stock picks amid expectations of easing volatility. Analysts from Geojit Investments, Axis Direct, and MarketSmith India highlight opportunities across sectors, including BSE, TVS Motor, Ashok Leyland, and Bharat Electronics.

Gold and silver futures saw a sharp decline on MCX on February 1. This follows a significant drop on Friday. Profit-taking and a stronger US dollar are driving the correction. The MCX is trading on Sunday for the Union Budget 2026 presentation. Import duty changes could impact local prices.

As India braces for its Union Budget, market participants are keenly observing policy measures to curb capital outflows and boost investor confidence. Edelweiss Mutual Fund CEO Radhika Gupta expressed caution, highlighting global uncertainties and tariff threats. She anticipates a focus on capital expenditure in defence, infrastructure, and manufacturing, alongside job creation and technology sectors.

Hindustan Copper shares: A sharp 3.4% drop in global copper prices on the LME has dampened sentiment across metal stocks, raising concerns about near-term impact on the companys performance.

Meesho shares are likely to stay in focus during the special Sunday trading session after the company reported sharply wider Q3FY26 losses despite strong revenue and operating growth. Higher advertising spends and margin pressure weighed on profitability, even as user growth, order volumes, and cash flow generation highlighted continued focus on long-term expansion.

Indian equity markets are showing signs of recovery after a challenging period, with Rakesh Vyas of Quest Investment Managers anticipating a revival in corporate earnings. He highlights opportunities in mid and smallcap stocks, particularly within BFSI, consumer discretionary, and power sectors, driven by government stimulus and improving consumption.

IFCI shares may draw attention in the special Budget session after SEBI granted clearance for NSEs long-awaited IPO. IFCI holds indirect exposure through its majority stake in SHCIL, which owns shares in NSE, making the stock sensitive to developments around the exchanges proposed listing and investor sentiment closely.

Amidst global volatility and stretched valuations, Indian equities are experiencing sharp polarization. Investors are advised to favor large-cap stocks for their attractive risk-reward profile. While India's long-term growth story remains strong, near-term returns may be muted due to geopolitical uncertainty and FII outflows.

Investors are watching the Union Budget for fiscal consolidation and growth spending. Analysts recommend buying quality stocks on dips, especially in infrastructure, defence, power, and housing. Key themes include sustained public capex, targeted support for rural demand, and thrust on renewables. Companies in these sectors are expected to benefit from government initiatives and policy continuity.

We have collated a list of recommendations from top brokerage firms from ETNow and other sources.

MCX shares are in focus as Indias commodity exchange opens for a rare Sunday trading session alongside the Union Budget, as gold and silver prices suffer a sharp global sell-off amid dollar strength and shifting expectations around US Federal Reserve leadership.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that the US central bank should not cut interest rates further unless the job market weakens or inflation drops. He believes the current policy rate is neutral, with the economy poised for above-trend growth.

US Federal Reserve's Michelle Bowman still favors interest rate cuts, but voted to hold steady for more data. She anticipates three quarter-percentage-point reductions this year, emphasizing a measured pace. Despite a fragile job market, stabilization signs allow for a brief pause to assess policy impact before further easing.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi highlighted export benefits from a weaker yen, contrasting with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama's intervention threats. While Takaichi sees opportunities for industries like food and automobiles, the yen's decline fuels inflation and prompts central bank rate hike signals. Investor concerns over Japan's finances are evident as bond yields hit record highs.

Hindustan Zinc shares will be in focus later today after silver experienced its largest single-day drop on record. The white metal plunged significantly on MCX and internationally, impacting the Vedanta subsidiary's stock. This decline follows a strong rally and a recent Offer For Sale by its promoter.

As long as the stock is priced above the 200-day SMA on the daily timeframe, it is generally considered to be in an overall uptrend.

Over the last 15 years, Sensex and Nifty have shown a mixed but slightly positive record on Budget days, with average gains of 0.35% for Sensex. While intraday volatility is common, the market tends to perform better in the weeks and months following the budget announcements, indicating a positive bias for investors who stagger purchases.

Investors are now selling American assets. This trend began after tariffs caused market turmoil. Recent policies from the Trump administration are causing renewed investor worry. This shift is leading to a weaker U.S. dollar. Gold and silver prices have reached record highs. The U.S. stock market has stalled. International investors are seeing a significant change in investment dynamics.

Indian stock markets anticipate a positive opening today. Investors await the federal budget presentation for insights into government spending and support for export sectors. The budget aims to balance growth initiatives with fiscal discipline. Expectations are for measures to boost domestic manufacturing and rural demand. This could provide a much-needed boost to equities after a challenging start to the year.

Bitcoin experienced a significant decline, falling 6.53% to $78,719.63 on Saturday, continuing its downward trend. This drop follows concerns that a potential new Fed chair might tighten liquidity, impacting speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Ether also saw a substantial fall, reflecting broader struggles in the crypto market.

ITC's market value has dropped significantly following a recent tax hike on cigarettes. Investors are now looking to the upcoming Budget for clarity on future taxation. While the core business shows resilience, near-term pressure on volumes and margins is expected. The company's diversified operations offer a buffer against these challenges.

Indian stock markets approach the Union Budget 2026 with caution, facing a fragile footing and weak sentiment. Analysts anticipate a low-key budget, emphasizing fiscal discipline, continuity in capital gains taxation, and visible capital expenditure to steady nerves and maintain market engagement.

Budget week inflates option premiums due to market uncertainty, with Nifty ATM straddles consistently opening high. While volatility rises pre-Budget, an IV Crush consistently deflates premiums post-speech. Defined-risk strategies like Iron Flies and Condors proved most successful, limiting losses during extreme moves.

Foreign investors have withdrawn billions from Indian stocks. Markets eagerly await Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's Budget today. The government is considering tax relief for foreign portfolio investors. Broader reforms to attract capital are also anticipated. The Budget's focus will be on boosting earnings growth and offering tax incentives to encourage foreign investment back into India.

Indian equity benchmarks closed lower on Friday, with the Nifty down 0.4%, as markets await budget announcements and global cues. The India VIX rose 2%, indicating increased market fear. Foreign portfolio investors were net buyers, while domestic institutional investors were net sellers.

Indian stock markets are trading today, Sunday, February 1, for the Union Budget 2026 presentation. Both NSE and BSE are open for a full trading session, a rare occurrence allowing real-time investor reaction to Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's announcements. Commodity markets are also operating, with investors cautiously awaiting policy continuity and fiscal discipline amid weak sentiment.

Stocks to Watch: Indian markets closed lower on Friday. Investors showed caution ahead of the Union Budget. Several companies like IDFC First Bank, Sun Pharma, and Bajaj Auto announced their third-quarter results. Adani Green issued a clarification on a US civil case. The government plans to offload its stake in IDBI Bank. Deepak Kapoor resigned from Delhivery's board.

Sebi chief Tuhin Kanta Pandey urged financial sector stakeholders to prioritize professional conscience over mere technical compliance, emphasizing that ethical substance, not just rules, prevents corporate failures. He highlighted that areas like valuations and ESG disclosures require judgment, making technical compliance insufficient and underscoring the crucial role of chartered accountants as custodians of trust.

India's hospitality sector is attracting significant, low-profile investment, with approximately $2 billion flowing into operational hotel properties. Investors, including institutions and family offices, are prioritizing early cash flows and reduced risk, leading to a seller's market for quality assets. Recent deals span diverse locations and hotel sizes, highlighting a robust trend in the industry.

Sun Pharma announced strong third quarter results. Sales rose 15% to Rs 15,469 crore and net profit climbed 16% to Rs 3,368 crore. Growth was fueled by its branded businesses in India and emerging markets, along with global innovative medicines. The company also declared an interim dividend.

Gold and silver are stabilising after their worst-ever single-day crash on MCX, with traders bracing for fresh volatility as the Union Budget approaches. Analysts say the correction reflects a leverage washout, not a trend reversal, with key support zones likely to guide the next leg of the precious metals rally.

Markets slipped on Friday as investors turned defensive ahead of Sundays Union Budget, with IT and metal stocks weighing on sentiment. Analysts highlighted persistent volatility amid global uncertainties, Fed leadership changes and FII pressure. With key levels holding firm, traders now await Budget cues to determine the markets next decisive move.

Indian markets experienced a downturn on Friday, with Nifty ending its winning streak due to selling in key sectors. Geopolitical worries, the upcoming Union Budget, and a weakening rupee contributed to subdued sentiment. Analysts anticipate volatility during Sunday's special trading session, advising a cautious, hedged approach ahead of the budget announcement.

Nifty ended the week with modest gains as markets stayed range-bound ahead of the Union Budget. The index defended key moving averages and hovered near a crucial trendline. With resistance at 25,500 and support at 24,75024,900, traders should stay cautious and focus on stock-specific setups until post-Budget clarity emerges.

Indias export strategy is shifting beyond its dependence on the US, with fresh FTAs across Europe, the UK, Middle East and Oceania. The EU deal alone opens tariff-free access for 99% of Indian goods. This diversification strengthens Indias trade resilience and reduces vulnerabilities tied to geopolitical uncertainty.

IDFC First Bank posted a strong Q3FY26 performance with net profit rising 48% to Rs 503 crore and NII up 12% year-on-year. Asset quality improved with lower gross NPAs, while loan growth remained broad-based. The bank saw steady momentum in credit cards and wealth management, supported by easing provisions.