Business / The Economic Times
With most markets closed for Easter, the MSCI emerging markets index rose on Friday, taking its weekly advance to 2.2%. Currencies of commodity-linked countries including South Africa outperformed this week, sending the benchmark near a six-month high.
In the grip of the tariff fallout, 90 of the top 100 best-performing exchange-traded funds of last year are down in 2025, with an average loss of 13%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. At the same time, dormant trades of all sorts have staged a comeback: Nine of the 20 worst-performing equity mutual funds of 2024 are posting positive returns this year.
These and other planned initiatives follow a directive by finance and corporate affairs minister Nirmala Sitharaman to take swift remedial measures amid complaints of delay in transfers, according to people familiar with the matter.
In the frenzy that ensued, Sealion helped charter five aircraft while overseeing dozens of trucks and barges to ship $330 million worth of equipment from Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia to the US.
However, the company did not give any details of the amount to be raised. The company will also present its fourth quarter and full-year results post the board meeting, along with an analyst and media briefing.
The US Treasury is considered among the world's top safe-haven assets, as investors usually pile up these American government bonds in times of crisis as part of their shift to safety. The purchases lead to a fall in yields on the US Treasury and the dollar strengthening.
Indian banks, including HDFC Bank and SBI, are strategically reducing savings account interest rates by 25 basis points to protect profitability amid declining CASA ratios. This move aims to lower the cost of funds and improve net interest margins, even as deposit growth faces challenges. Experts anticipate limited fund migration despite depositors shifting towards higher-yielding term deposits.
India's move to protect against substandard imports is creating supply chain risks for electronics manufacturers, potentially hindering export competitiveness. Quality control orders on base metals unintentionally affect the electronics sector, causing sourcing constraints. Industry executives are seeking exemptions for electronics products, as these require high-grade raw materials not readily available in India, potentially disrupting production and global value chain integration.
Jerome Powell is openly challenging President Trump's economic policies and defending the Federal Reserve's independence. Powell criticized tariffs as harmful to the economy and asserted the Fed would not bow to political pressure. Trump swiftly responded, reiterating his desire to replace Powell, highlighting the ongoing tension over monetary policy and the Fed's autonomy.
Businesses can now obtain GST registration within 7 days, while applications deemed high-risk will be processed within 30 days following a physical verification. The CBIC issued an indicative list of acceptable documents, addressing complaints about officers requesting unnecessary paperwork.
Prime Minister Modi's upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia on April 22 will prioritize boosting the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), particularly the Saudi segment. Discussions will also cover energy cooperation, increased Saudi investments in India, and regional stability amidst US-Iran peace talks. India aims for a stable West Asia to protect its energy and economic interests.
India's pomegranate exports to the US are gaining momentum with the first commercial sea shipment of the Bhagwa variety reaching New York. This milestone, involving 4,620 boxes from Maharashtra, is part of efforts to boost Indo-US trade, aiming for $500 billion by 2030.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is planning a Europe trip in mid-May, encompassing Croatia, Norway, and the Netherlands, as FTA negotiations intensify. The Norway leg includes the 3rd India-Nordic Summit, emphasizing renewables, high-tech, and investments. In the Netherlands, Modi will focus on high-tech collaboration, particularly semiconductors, reinforcing its role as a key economic partner.
CRISIL Ratings anticipates minimal impact on the credit quality of India Inc due to reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US. Less than 0.25% of the 7,200 rated companies, primarily in manufacturing sub-sectors, are potentially at risk. These companies possess adequate balance-sheet strength, mitigating significant credit weakening, as infrastructure, financial, and service sectors remain largely unaffected.
As part of the transition, the firm has also changed its name from PhonePe Private Limited to PhonePe Limited. Walmart chief executive officer Doug McMillon on February 20 announced that PhonePe had begun preparations for a potential listing on Indian stock exchanges, though he did not specify a timeline.
The Indian government has refuted rumors about imposing GST on UPI transactions exceeding Rs 2,000, dismissing the claims as baseless and misleading. The government reaffirmed its commitment to promoting digital payments through UPI. Currently, no Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) is charged on UPI transactions, thus no GST is applicable, reinforcing India's leadership in digital payments.
The Appointments Committee of the Cabinet has approved a major bureaucratic reshuffle, appointing new secretaries across various ministries, including four in the Department of Finance. Arvind Shrivastava is the new Revenue Secretary, while Vumlunmang Vualnam becomes Expenditure Secretary.
India's foreign exchange reserves experienced a boost, increasing by $1.5 billion to reach $677.84 billion as of April 11, 2025, according to the Reserve Bank of India's latest data. The RBI actively manages liquidity and intervenes in the market to prevent sharp declines in the rupee's value. The central bank's interventions aim to maintain orderly market conditions.
Gold prices experienced a dip of Rs 400 per 10 grams on Thursday due to profit booking, following a record high of Rs 95,935. Experts remain bullish, citing ongoing uncertainties, but caution against potential hurdles like tariff agreements. Analysts suggest a 'buy on dips' strategy, anticipating resistance around Rs 99,000, while closely monitoring international prices and key support levels.
The Centre appointed IAS officer Arvind Shrivastava, Additional Secretary, Prime Minister's Office as Secretary, Department of Revenue.
The EPFO is launching Version 3.0 by June to benefit over 9 crore users with ATM withdrawals and faster claim processing, according to Union Minister Mansukh Mandaviya. This digital overhaul aims to simplify services, eliminating complex forms and physical visits. The new system will enable OTP-verified account updates and easy fund monitoring.
India's oilmeals exports witnessed a significant decline, dropping 21% to Rs 12,171 crore in the last fiscal year, primarily due to an 11% decrease in sales volumes. The Solvent Extractors' Association of India reported reduced exports of rapeseed and castorseed meal as key factors.
The government aims to complete physical infrastructure at nine plastic parks by the end of 2025, according to Chemicals and Petrochemicals Secretary Nivedita Shukla Verma. While 3-4 parks, including those in Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, and Assam, are partially operational, land acquisition and state coordination have caused delays.
Under the Price Support Scheme, the government has procured 3,40,000 tonnes of tur as of April 13, with Karnataka leading the procurement. While chana procurement remains slow due to higher domestic prices, masur and moong procurement have reached 28,700 and 3,000 tonnes, respectively.
Yes Bank is expected to post strong YoY earnings growth in Q4FY25, with PAT rising up to 44%, according to JM Financial and Anand Rathi. While profit momentum remains solid, margin pressure persists. Divergent projections reflect mixed views on profitability, NII growth, and loan performance.
India's gold imports surged by 192.13% to $4.47 billion in March, driven by rising prices and strong investor confidence, contributing to a widened trade deficit of $21.54 billion. For the fiscal year 2024-25, gold imports increased by 27.27% to $58 billion, impacting the Current Account Deficit, while silver imports decreased.
HDFC Banks results will set the tone for BFSI earnings. MOFSL remains bullish, picking five financial stocksKotak Bank, Chola, Paytm, Poonawalla, and PNB Housingexpecting 1015% potential returns.
ICICI Bank Q4 preview: The lenders net interest income (NII)the gap between interest earned and interest paid during the quarteris expected to grow by 7.6% to 11% compared to the same quarter last year, likely falling between 20,543 crore and 21,170 crore.
A Bank of Baroda report reveals that the Indian central government is channeling approximately 91% of its Rs 6.8 lakh crore investments into five key sectors for 2024-25. Renewable electricity leads with Rs 2.7 lakh crore, aiming to generate 12,555 MW. Chhattisgarh receives the largest share of investments at Rs 1.4 lakh crore, followed by Odisha.
Infosys reported a 12% YoY drop in Q4 net profit and missed revenue estimates. The company in its guidance has projected revenue growth of 0%3% in constant currency and an operating margin of 20%22% for FY26.Brokerages like Nuvama and Emkay cut FY26-27 EPS and target prices but maintained 'Buy' ratings, citing deal wins and cautious growth guidance.
The central and state governments announced a significant investment of Rs 3.9 lakh crore in road infrastructure for FY25, according to a Bank of Baroda report, with a focus on improving connectivity and boosting logistics as part of a larger public sector capital expenditure.
On April 17, four stocks from the NSE list with market caps over Rs 10,000 crore saw their close prices drop below the 200 DMA, signaling a negative trend.
Chirag Muni discusses global macro trends, including US tariffs and their limited impact on India. He highlights the potential for 1011% Nifty growth in the next year, with 1314% returns achievable through mutual funds and balanced asset allocation.
On April 17, five NSE large-cap stocks, including Avenue Supermarts and SBI, crossed above their 200-DMA, signaling potential bullish trends based on stockedge.com's technical scan data.
Sujan Hajra from Anand Rathi Group remains optimistic about India's growth and equity market, anticipating 12-13% annualised returns from large-cap equities. Despite global volatility and tariff tensions, India's resilient macro fundamentals and reasonable valuations support this outlook. He suggests overweighting financials and IT, while underweighting automobiles and FMCG, advocating for a balanced portfolio with fixed income for stability.
HDFC Bank is expected to post 2.57% YoY profit growth in Q4, with NII rising 5.59%. Brokerages remain divided, with IIFL most bullish. Asset quality and credit cost likely to improve. Margins steady; loan and deposit growth moderate. Q4 results to set tone for banking sector earnings.
A recent ICICI Bank report forecasts slower revenue growth for Indian states in FY26 compared to FY25, primarily due to weaker non-tax revenue growth and reduced central government transfers. While states' own tax revenue is expected to remain steady, the overall slowdown may impact their fiscal positions. Total receipts are projected to grow by 12% YoY in FY26.
Rupak De from LKP Securities described the recent surge as fast and furious, highlighting that the Nifty has jumped nearly 10% within a few sessions, surpassing two key swing highs in the process.
FIIs increased stakes in 10 Nifty500 mid-cap stocks in Q4 FY25, with notable hikes in IndusInd Bank, AWL Agri, and UPL, indicating growing foreign interest in select sectors.
IDFC First Bank is set to raise 7,500 crore through CCPS, with Warburg Pincus and ADIA investing 4,876 crore and 2,624 crore respectively. This move aims to bolster the bank's capital adequacy as it focuses on expanding its infrastructure and new business segments.
CLSA expresses caution regarding Indian FMCG companies, particularly in the Home and Personal Care sector, citing high PE ratios amidst slowing growth and declining returns. Valuations appear detached from growth, raising concerns about margin sustainability due to increasing competition and evolving distribution dynamics. The brokerage downgraded Godrej Consumer and remains wary of Hindustan Unilever and Marico.
Coromandel International and One 97 Communications may join the MSCI Global Standard Index. FSN E-Commerce and Adani Energy Solutions are also strong contenders. Nuvama Alternative Research predicts these changes. Thermax and Sona BLW Precision could be excluded. These adjustments will trigger significant fund reallocations. The announcement is expected on May 14. Changes will take effect on May 30.
The rupee saw its best week in a month, closing at 85.36 against the dollar. Foreign portfolio inflows and a weaker dollar index supported the rise. Both state-run and foreign banks sold dollars. Foreign investors net bought over $1 billion in Indian stocks. Dollar-rupee forward premiums declined. Indian financial markets are closed on Friday for Good Friday.
Indian stock markets experienced a significant surge, with the Nifty and Sensex jumping by 1.8% and 2% respectively, marking their best week in over three years. This rally, fueled by renewed foreign investment and reduced bearish sentiment, erased year-to-date losses. While Asian markets largely followed suit, US markets showed mixed performance amid concerns over Federal Reserve policy.
Gold prices in India surged to 95,000 per 10 grams on Thursday, mirroring global trends. Central banks and ETFs are increasing gold holdings. This rise coincides with geopolitical tensions and a weaker US dollar. Retail investors are selling gold to profit from the high prices. Akshaya Tritiya sales may suffer due to the increased cost.
Stock exchanges will be closed on Good Friday, marking the end of April's market holidays. The next trading breaks are scheduled for Maharashtra Day, Independence Day, and Ganesh Chaturthi. The past week saw a strong market rally fueled by positive economic factors and favorable forecasts, leading to sector- and stock-specific investment strategies.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman stated India will prioritize policy agility amidst the escalating trade war between major economies, aiming to lessen the adverse effects on supply chains caused by rising protectionism. She highlighted India's confidence in navigating global disruptions through a strong domestic foundation, infrastructure development, inclusive growth, and regional cooperation.
US tariffs on Chinese imports are opening doors for Indian garment and toy exporters, potentially boosting their capacity utilization to 90-95%. American buyers are actively seeking to diversify their supply chains, leading to increased inquiries for Indian manufacturers. While this presents a significant opportunity for Indian MSMEs, capacity constraints and the need for strategic investments remain key challenges to address.
The US informed the WTO that its steel and aluminum tariffs are for national security, not safeguard measures, rejecting India's consultation request. India sought discussions after the US imposed tariffs in 2018 and revised them in February 2025, arguing the US failed to notify the WTO.