The Economic Times

The Reserve Bank of India and the Finance Ministry are working to boost rural credit. Measures are in place to ensure ample liquidity for the economy. Priority Sector Lending guidelines and Ground Level Agriculture Credit targets are key to expanding Kisan Credit Card coverage. The limit for collateral-free agricultural loans will increase from January 1, 2025.

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The Reserve Bank of India's intervention to curb arbitrage trades has triggered a disorderly unwinding of bank positions, causing the rupee to slide. This regulatory action, coupled with global risk-off sentiment and geopolitical tensions, is expected to keep the rupee under pressure for several days. Experts suggest the rupee could depreciate by around 10% in this cycle.

Indias fiscal deficit for the first eleven months of this fiscal year through February stood at Rs 12.5 lakh crore (about $132 billion), or 80.4% of the annual estimate, government data showed on Monday.

The Indian rupee fell to a record low for the third straight session on Monday, finding only fleeting relief from the central bank's tightening of banks' forex position caps, as the outlook for Asian currency remained weak amid the Middle East war.

Indian government bonds extended their selloff on Monday, closing out a rough financial year, on bets that a protracted Middle East war would upend the government's fiscal plans and raise interest rates after the rupee plunged past 95 per dollar.

February 2026 marked a pivotal moment for India's industrial sector, which saw a 5.2 percent increase in the Index of Industrial Production year-on-year. The surge can be largely attributed to dynamic manufacturing activities, while the mining and electricity industries played crucial roles in propelling overall economic momentum. The trend indicates a continued expansion in industrial undertakings.

Amid global market turmoil over the Middle East conflict, Nvidia trades at its cheapest price-to-earnings multiple since before the AI boom. Shares have fallen nearly 20% from October highs, reflecting broader investor caution. While the drop may signal a bargain, elevated oil prices, inflation fears, and potential interest-rate hikes add uncertainty to the AI-driven rally.

Rising crude oil prices due to West Asian tensions could significantly push up India's inflation by 55-60 basis points per $10 barrel increase in FY27. This could also widen the current account deficit and pressure the Indian rupee, though strong domestic demand and policy flexibility offer some resilience.

The government is set to review its electronics manufacturing scheme. Beneficiaries must invest in product design and achieve Six Sigma standards. Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw warned that non-compliance will lead to halted disbursements and approvals. The industry has 15 days to present plans for design, talent, and local sourcing. This move aims to boost high-quality, self-reliant electronics manufacturing in India.

The Indian rupee slipped past 95 against the US dollar, driven by structural imbalances, foreign outflows, and high oil prices. RBI-imposed limits on banks forex positions aim to curb speculation and arbitrage. A further slide toward 100 could pressure import-reliant sectors and financial markets, while exporters like IT and pharma may benefit. Market experts warn the rupee remains under sustained stress.

Delhi's factories have increased, but job growth in its industrial sector remains slow. This indicates a gradual recovery after the Covid-19 pandemic. Employment gains are concentrated in specific segments like rubber, plastics, and repair services. Traditional sectors like textiles show stagnation. A shift towards logistics and supply chain activities is also evident.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman stated India's economic fundamentals are strong. The Indian rupee is performing well against the US dollar compared to other emerging markets. Despite a recent depreciation linked to the West Asia conflict, the government and RBI are closely monitoring the rupee's value. Inflation has eased significantly, with prices of essential commodities remaining stable or decreasing.

Gold prices saw a relief rally on Monday, gaining Rs 2,000 per 10 gram after a massive 27% correction from lifetime highs. While geopolitical tensions offer support, rising crude prices and delayed US Fed rate cuts suggest only a limited recovery rather than a fresh breakaway rally for the metal.

Israel, Iran war: India faces a vulnerable situation with domestic urea production impacted. The government is actively securing imports for April and May, crucial months for agricultural stocking. States are being informed to prevent panic. Authorities are vigilant against hoarding and black marketing. Promotion of alternative fertilizers like ammonium sulphate and triple super phosphate is also underway to manage urea demand.

European shares were little changed on Monday ahead of local inflation data, while investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East war that has upended global markets.

The Indian rupee faced pressure on Monday. Corporates exploited arbitrage opportunities between onshore and non-deliverable forward markets. This emerged after the Reserve Bank of India tightened banks' forex positions. The rupee hit a record low against the US dollar. Importers also contributed to the currency's decline. This situation created attractive trading windows for businesses.

National Stock Exchange of India has taken a key step toward its IPO by issuing an offer-for-sale (OFS) letter to shareholders, formally initiating the listing process. The entire issue will be through OFS, with eligibility limited to those holding shares since June 15, 2025.

Foreign institutional investors have steadily raised stakes in several Indian companies through FY26, signalling conviction despite market volatility. Eleven such stocks delivered returns between 70% and 1,500%, with seven turning multibaggers. The trend highlights how tracking FII activity can help identify outperformers even during broader market corrections.

India's cement sector is grappling with soaring input costs. Rising prices of petcoke, coal, and packaging materials are squeezing profit margins. Companies are attempting price hikes, but overcapacity makes it difficult for the market to absorb these increases. Analysts suggest that improved capacity utilization is key for pricing stability. Nuvoco Vistas and UltraTech Cement are identified as favored companies.

India's brief 'Goldilocks' period of high growth and low inflation is over, challenged by global events like the Iran war. Rising oil prices and supply chain disruptions are creating a classic dilemma for the RBI, forcing a choice between supporting growth and containing inflation amidst growing uncertainty.

Foreign institutional investors have orchestrated a record exodus from Indian equities, withdrawing over $12 billion in March alone. This unprecedented selloff, driven by escalating Gulf war crude prices and a depreciating rupee, has triggered market downgrades and concerns about India's growth outlook.

South Korean financial markets experienced a significant downturn on Monday. The main stock index, KOSPI, dropped by almost 3%. The national currency, the won, reached its lowest point in 17 years against the dollar. These declines were driven by concerns about the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Investors reacted with caution to the ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Indian stock markets will observe a holiday on March 31 for Shri Mahavir Jayanti. This marks the first of two market holidays this week. The Multi-Commodity Exchange of India will have a partial closure. The National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited will be closed. Markets will also shut on April 3 for Good Friday.

Indian stock markets experienced a volatile trading session. Banking stocks faced pressure, causing frontline indices to decline. However, the metal sector showed strong performance, driven by rising global aluminium prices. Stocks like Nalco, Vedanta, and Hindalco saw significant buying interest. Traders are closely watching the Nifty's 22,400 support level. Metal stocks are presenting tactical opportunities in a cautious market.

Geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices are creating market uncertainty, with traditional safe havens failing to provide comfort. While the war's outcome remains unclear, Indian market valuations offer a cushion, trading below historical averages. Positive developments could trigger a rally, as markets have historically rebounded from crises.

Japan's Nikkei share average tumbled on Monday, while benchmark bond yields briefly touched a 27-year high before retreating, as the widening Middle East war fuelled recession concerns.

The Indian rupee is set for a turbulent period. A sharp regulatory change and a major energy shock are expected to cause an immediate slide. This will be followed by a temporary recovery. Banks have until April 10 to adjust positions. After this, a second, more significant selling pressure could emerge. High oil prices will continue to impact the economy.

CMPDI shares listed at a 7% discount amid weak demand despite strong fundamentals and institutional interest. Analysts remain cautious on near-term upside due to muted retail participation and broader market sentiment. While valuations appear reasonable, dependence on Coal India and sector risks remain key concerns for investors.

Australian shares declined on Monday. Banks and technology stocks led the fall. High energy prices fueled inflation worries. Investors reduced risk appetite. The S&P/ASX 200 index closed lower. Global markets faced pressure after weekend attacks. Brent crude prices soared significantly this month. Westpac anticipates further interest rate hikes.

India and Australia are set to resume trade negotiations in the coming weeks, with Canberra eager to advance a bilateral agreement. Discussions are expected to progress gradually through a phased approach, focusing on India's growing consumer market and demand for Australian food and beverages. While both nations are optimistic, negotiations are anticipated to be complex and unfold over multiple stages.

Brokerages are bullish on Indian defense stocks following the Defense Acquisition Council's approval of proposals worth Rs 2.38 lakh crore, enhancing India's combat and surveillance capabilities. These approvals, including S-400 missile systems and Su-30 engine overhauls, signal strong order inflows and indigenization opportunities for domestic players like Bharat Electronics, which remains a top pick.

India's economic outlook is bolstered by robust domestic demand and improving high-frequency indicators, including strong auto sales and GST collections. However, rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, present significant stagflation risks and could impact growth and macro stability. External vulnerabilities remain a concern due to reliance on Middle Eastern energy and its importance for Indian exports and remittances.

New Jan Vishwas Bill: The proposed amendments reflect a broader policy push towards reducing criminal liability for business-related offences and promoting ease of doing business through a compliance-based regulatory approach.

Global government bonds are facing significant monthly losses, driven by Middle East conflict fears impacting inflation and growth. While short-dated debt saw some relief, investors are increasingly concerned about stagflation. Oil prices above $100 are pushing bets for higher-for-longer interest rates, overshadowing safe-haven debt appeal. China's bonds, however, show resilience.

Indian markets are experiencing significant volatility. Geopolitical tensions and rising bond yields are creating uncertainty. Experts warn of the full economic impact yet to be felt. Sectors like pharma and utilities may offer safety. Financials and NBFCs face challenges from potential slowdowns. Real estate also anticipates further pressure. Investors are advised to prioritize caution and quality.

Middle East conflict now signals a global growth shock, not just inflation, warns macro strategist Stephen Innes. Elevated oil prices, potentially $90-$100, are forcing central banks into difficult choices, risking stagflation. While caution is advised, Innes sees opportunity in electric vehicles, especially in China and India, as the energy crisis accelerates their adoption.

Bitcoin hovered near $67,472, up 1% as experts suggest a full recovery to all-time highs might extend to Q2 2027, depending on the depth of the current correction. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows, breaking a four-week inflow streak. The broader crypto market cap edged up, but US-Iran tensions and rising oil prices are creating investor caution.

Banks scrambled to adjust positions Monday after the RBI's new $100 million cap on net open rupee exposure. This directive forced them to unwind overseas hedges, widening the gap between local and offshore rupee rates. Treasury officials warn of significant mark-to-market losses as banks rush to comply with the stringent new rule.