The Economic Times

As Budget 2026 approaches, taxpayers anticipate a more consistent capital gains tax framework. Experts suggest aligning holding periods for different assets, clarifying taxation on contingent considerations, and potentially reducing long-term capital gains rates to encourage wealth creation and simplify tax planning.

The rupee may remain under pressure near 92 per dollar due to weak capital inflows, exporter stress and a rising current account deficit, says IFA Globals Abhishek Goenka. However, he expects improvement in FY27 with the rupee averaging below 90, aided by valuation support, selective RBI intervention, stable inflation and potential trade deal triggers.

Goldman Sachs Timothy Moe expects India to stage an earnings-led comeback in 2026, with MSCI India earnings growth seen at 15%. Valuations are expensive but defensible, limiting upside from re-rating. A recovery in earnings, domestic consumption, financials and policy support could help revive foreign investor interest later in the year.

The sell-off was broad-based, with all sectoral indices finishing lower and midcap and smallcap stocks seeing notable wealth erosion.

The recent rally in global gold prices reflects a powerful convergence of geopolitical frictions, trade-policy uncertainty, and a visible shift in investor appetite away from U.S. assets.

Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, shares his view on Niftys fragile technical setup, the likelihood of heightened volatility around the Budget, and whether oversold stocks like Kalyan Jewellers are poised for a relief rally.

A key shift we expect is transition in policy emphasis from stimulating consumption to enabling production, reflecting a broader economic pivot from a Buy India approach to a Build India agenda.

Oil prices extended gains on Monday after climbing more than 2% in the previous session, as tensions between the U.S. and Iran kept investors on edge even after Kazakhstan's main export pipeline resumed full operations.

A rising yen dragged the dollar broadly lower in early trade on Monday, with markets on alert about the prospect of intervention in the yen and investors cutting dollar positions ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting and possible Fed chair announcement.

Retail loan pricing at some NBFCs has risen, offsetting recent repo rate cuts due to climbing borrowing costs. Experts note that while many maintain rates, some are passing higher funding expenses to customers via increased lending rates or fees. The spread between NBFC and corporate borrowing costs has widened significantly.

Gold surged past $5,000 per ounce early on Monday following a turbulent week where tensions over Greenland and Iran rattled sentiment, while markets remained on tenterhooks after a rout in bonds and violent spikes in the yen.

US and European gas traders wrongly predicted a mild winter. Now, a severe cold snap in America has sent natural gas prices soaring. This surge impacts global markets, with Asian buyers potentially priced out. Tankers are rerouting to Europe. Traders are in panic mode as pipelines face freezing risks, threatening supply amid high demand.

Greenko Energy Holdings secured 4,800 crore from NaBFID. This funding will retire dollar bonds maturing soon. The loan is for 38 special purpose vehicles with 1 GW renewable capacity. Greenko plans to use the funds for bond redemption this week. The company has a net installed capacity of 11 GW across India. Fitch recently downgraded Greenko's rating citing project delays.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has placed India at the centre of Europes trade strategy, urging closure of the long-pending India-EU free trade agreement. The deal could boost economic ties, reflect Indias strategic confidence, and alter global trade dynamics.

Markets anticipate a rebound early in the shortened week following news of potential tariff removal on India. Despite oversold conditions, a sustained bounce hinges on reduced foreign institutional selling. Analysts identify key support and resistance zones, with a durable sentiment improvement requiring the index to reclaim higher bands.

Traders are on high alert for potential Japanese government intervention to curb the yen's recent decline, with speculation fueled by reports of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York contacting financial institutions about the exchange rate. This move, potentially with US backing, follows a warning from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi about abnormal yen movements.

Indian stock markets, including NSE and BSE, are closed today, January 26, for Republic Day. Trading will resume on Tuesday, January 27. This marks the second holiday of the year, with 16 closures scheduled for 2026 due to various national and religious observances.

India is set to significantly reduce import duties on cars from the European Union. Tariffs will drop to 40% from as high as 110%. This move is part of a major free trade agreement expected soon. European automakers like Volkswagen and BMW will see easier market access. This pact aims to boost bilateral trade and Indian exports.

Changes such as higher exemptions, expanded deductions, and parity across tax regimes in the upcoming Budget could ease financial stress, boost consumption, and support Indias growth momentum

Canada is pursuing a strategy to boost trade beyond the United States. Foreign Minister Anita Anand stated the nation will not be deterred by recent threats from the Trump administration. Canada aims to double its non-US exports within ten years. This diversification includes forging new trade relationships with countries like India.

Gold prices have reached a record high of over $5,000 per ounce. This surge is driven by global uncertainty and policies from US President Donald Trump. Recent events, including trade war fears and pressure on the Federal Reserve, have boosted gold's appeal. Investors are seeking safe havens as confidence in the dollar and bonds wavers.

KKR plans to invest tens of billions of dollars in India over the next 5-10 years, identifying it as a priority strategic market. The firm sees compelling opportunities in India's consumption, growth, and digital advancements, alongside infrastructure and private credit. While valuations have risen, KKR believes they remain attractive relative to the country's strong growth prospects.

Union Budget: The government is considering income tax exemptions for companies that deploy CSR funds toward vocational training to boost private sector participation in skilling. A formal proposal has been submitted to the finance ministry, with potential incentives expected in the Union Budget on February 1.

New-age technologies like AI are set to transform sectors such as agriculture and finance, boosting efficiency and innovation. However, experts say India must develop its own AI playbook to ensure inclusive, secure and sustainable growth.

Speaking during a panel discussion on new age financing-mobilising capital for infrastructure creation and sustainable regional growth at ET House in Davos, Jharkhand's finance secretary Prashant Kumar said his state has started looking for new-age financing with blended finance and public-private partnerships to fund capital infrastructure.

On February 1, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to unveil the Budget for the 2026-27 fiscal year. As the economy navigates a wave of external pressures, we can expect a focus on robust domestic strategies to sustain impressive growth. Controlling fiscal deficits will remain pivotal, and all eyes will be on the critical figures presented.

India and the European Union are on the verge of sealing a landmark free trade agreement, with both parties displaying a positive outlook on its potential benefits. This pivotal deal, culminating nearly two decades of discussions, promises to strengthen economic connections and reduce expenses for businesses and consumers alike.

Lenders have argued that the Stage 2 classification of crop loans should be linked to the crop season and pitched a classification similar to that of Kisan Credit Card (KCC) loans, which are linked to the agricultural crop cycle.

India's auto component sector anticipates accelerated technology transfers, joint ventures, and exports with the proposed EU free trade agreement. This pact is poised to boost electric vehicle and auto parts shipments, lower import costs, and integrate Indian suppliers deeper into European value chains, positioning India as a key partner.

In a strategic move to revamp the National Pension System, India's PFRDA is assembling a dedicated committee aimed at reforming investment guidelines. This expert group will analyze and compare international practices alongside local market conditions. Its primary objectives include enhancing retirement portfolios, diversifying options, and strengthening risk management strategies.

The UK, France, and China show high bank credit-to-GDP ratios. This suggests substantial lending to businesses, individuals, and across borders. Germany and Japan also demonstrate high levels of credit penetration, aligning with financial systems that rely heavily on banks.

Microfinance lenders are showing signs of recovery after a prolonged bad loan cycle. Leading institutions like Bandhan Bank, Ujjivan Small Finance Bank, and CreditAccess Grameen reported stable non-performing assets and improved margins. This performance suggests a normalization of business, offering relief to stakeholders and indicating a positive outlook for the sector.

US Vice President JD Vance and economic adviser Peter Navarro had reportedly blocked a trade deal with India, according to a report, The deal, first announced by PM Modi in February 2025, is aimed to significantly boost bilateral trade between the two two countries but is yet to be finalised even after multiple rounds of negotiations.

The government has extended deadlines for mandatory quality norms on aluminium cans used for alcoholic drinks, soft drinks and food processing, easing fears of shortages ahead of the peak summer season. Industry executives said the move will help balance rising demand and limited supply, as domestic can capacity remains more than 20% short.

The PFRDA has formed a 9-member committee, SAARG, to modernize the NPS investment framework. Headed by Narayan Ramachandran, the panel will review existing guidelines, benchmark them globally, and recommend enhancements for long-term wealth creation, diversification, and risk management. The committee has nine months to submit its report.

A proposed free trade agreement between India and the European Union promises a significant boost for India's apparel exports. The pact offers a unique chance for the garment sector to gain zero-duty market access. This development is expected to drive employment, support small businesses, and enhance India's global standing in apparel manufacturing.

Welcoming EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic, Piyush Goyal said, pleased to agree that sustained and constructive engagement between us and our teams over the past year has brought us closer to a fruitful outcome.

Union Budget: Indias urban population is set to rise sharply, with cities already contributing about 60% of GDP. The focus has shifted from whether urbanisation will shape growth to how it is guided, especially beyond major metros, making the Union Budget a key policy signal.

The iSIF Hybrid LongShort Fund blends equity and debt with limited short exposure using derivatives and special situations. It aims for smoother, risk-adjusted returns across cycles by adjusting net exposure based on valuations and market conditions. Derivatives are used for both hedging and income generation, while limited liquidity makes it suitable for investors seeking lower volatility and longer horizons.

Retail investors have stayed committed to Indian markets through multiple crises, but their confidence must be continually reinforced as savings grow. Taxation, especially STT, CTT, and capital gains, adds friction and makes India less competitive globally. Predictable, rational tax policy and long-term support for mutual funds are crucial to sustain domestic capital formation. Higher capex, especially in defence and infrastructure, is essential for long-term growth.

As the Nifty slips below its 200-day moving average amid sustained FII outflows and a weakening rupee, market sentiment has turned sharply cautious ahead of the Budget. Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, shares his January expiry strategy, key levels to track, and stock ideas in a volatile pre-Budget environment.

India's Union Budget 2026 aims to boost data centre capacity with incentives like subsidised land and tax holidays. However, the article questions if sustainability can match this rapid growth, highlighting the sector's high power and water consumption. Experts urge targeted incentives for green technologies and renewable energy to ensure environmentally responsible expansion.

Indian stock markets will be closed on Monday, January 26, for Republic Day, affecting trading across NSE, BSE and MCX. The closure marks the second market holiday of 2026. Trading will resume on Tuesday, January 27. For the rest of the year, exchanges will remain shut for 14 sessions, including Holi, Ram Navami, Diwali, Christmas and other national and regional observances.

Union Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan approved the procurement of 3.37 lakh metric tons of tur in Maharashtra. This decision under the Price Support Scheme will benefit farmers. The procurement will be done at a Minimum Support Price of approximately Rs 2696 crore. Chouhan instructed officials to ensure direct procurement from farmers and transparency through modern technology.

Buoyant revenue streams give the government room to keep capital expenditure spending steady, at about 3.1 per cent of GDP, while continuing on the path of fiscal consolidation, according to a pre-Budget report by ICICI Bank Global Markets.

Global central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are expected to hold interest rates steady amid heightened global uncertainty and political pressure. Despite calls for lower borrowing costs, policymakers are prioritizing economic stability. Meanwhile, some African central banks may consider easing rates due to different economic cycles.

A new India-EU free trade agreement, set for announcement on January 27, is projected to boost trade and lower costs, according to think tank GTRI. The agreement is expected to benefit both economies due to their complementary roles in the global value chain, with India exporting labor-intensive goods and the EU supplying capital and technology.

As Budget 2026 approaches, WhiteOak CEO Aashish Somaiyaa says the focus should shift from headline reforms to fixing structural market frictions. He argues that the current securities transaction tax and dividend taxation framework amounts to double taxation and needs review. Somaiyaa also highlights Atmanirbhar Bharat as a continuity-led strategy, explains the cyclical nature of FII flows, and stresses that macro stability will drive foreign investor confidence.

The upcoming Union Budget will likely continue the government's focus on capital expenditure. Policymakers are expected to prioritize public investment to sustain economic growth. Major policy shifts or tax changes are not anticipated. The budget may allocate funds to defence, agriculture, and rural development. Support for manufacturing and exports is also possible.

The combined market valuation of nine of the top-10 most valued firms slumped by Rs 2.51 lakh crore last week, with Reliance Industries taking the biggest hit, in line with a weak trend in equities.