The Economic Times

Middle East conflict has become a central financial risk, unsettling markets amid geopolitical fragmentation and inflation. U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran's leader triggered retaliatory attacks, disrupting regional flights and oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Political uncertainty in Iran and potential supply disruptions are driving oil prices higher and impacting investor caution.

Escalating Middle East tensions, following reports of Iran's Supreme Leader's death and subsequent retaliation, are boosting Indian defence stocks like HAL and BEL. While geopolitical uncertainty persists, India's deepening defence ties with Israel offer potential export opportunities. However, the broader market faces pressure, with crude oil prices being a key monitorable.

Indian stock markets experienced a significant downturn on Monday, with the Sensex and Nifty 50 opening sharply lower. This decline, exceeding 2,700 points for the Sensex and 500 points for the Nifty 50, was largely attributed to the escalating Middle East conflict and reported missile strikes. The market capitalization saw a substantial erosion of over Rs 7.

Wall Street watches artificial intelligence closely. AI could reshape businesses and the economy. Middle East tensions add to investor worries. A key US jobs report is due. Chipmaker Nvidia's results are under scrutiny. Markets are navigating uncertainty as new data emerges.

Gold and silver prices opened sharply higher on MCX Monday. Major strikes on Iran heightened safe-haven demand for precious metals. Gold futures for April 2026 delivery rose significantly. Silver futures for March 2026 delivery also soared. Analysts expect gold to reprice higher amid geopolitical uncertainty. International spot gold and silver prices also saw substantial gains.

Israel-Iran conflict India impact: India confronts fresh economic risks as conflict in West Asia intensifies. The killing of Iran's Supreme Leader and subsequent retaliation have heightened fears of oil supply disruptions. This could lead to higher crude prices, impacting domestic inflation and the Indian Rupee. Policymakers are closely monitoring the situation, as the volatile geopolitical landscape introduces significant uncertainty for the nation's economy.

Despite a 16-month period of subdued returns, mid- and small-cap valuations remain elevated, limiting rebound potential. Krishnan VR of Marcellus Investment Managers favors large caps for their better risk-reward, anticipating an earnings recovery in FY27 amidst a stable domestic economy. He notes strong earnings in PSU banks, metals, and oil & gas sectors during Q3.

The Nifty IT index faces sustained technical pressure, with recent recovery attempts lacking conviction and failing to alter the bearish structure. Analysts suggest a sell-on-rise bias for the sector, anticipating further downside if key resistance levels remain unchallenged. The market sentiment is cautious heading into March, with potential for a weak first half.

Oil prices have surged significantly due to escalating attacks between Iran and Israel. Tankers have been damaged, disrupting crucial shipments from the Middle East. This situation poses a considerable risk to India, which imports a large portion of its crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

Shares of Indian airlines and travel firms plummeted up to 13.5% as US and Israeli attacks on Iran triggered airspace closures across the Middle East. Major transit hubs like Dubai faced disruptions, leading to flight cancellations and advisories for passengers. Escalating tensions negatively impact travel demand and airline operating costs.

On February 27, four Nifty500 stocks closed more than 1.5% below their VWAP levels, indicating emerging bearish pressure. A close below VWAP suggests stocks ended the session beneath their volume-weighted average price, reflecting rising selling interest and weakening intraday sentiment tracked through technical scans.

Abu Dhabi and Dubai stock markets will shut down for two days, March 2nd and 3rd, due to rising Middle East tensions. This precautionary measure, announced by the Capital Market Authority, aims to ensure stability amidst escalating regional conflicts involving Iran, the US, and Israel. Authorities are closely monitoring developments and will provide updates through official channels.

On February 27, four Nifty500 stocks were flagged in the RSI Trending Up scan after rising over 2%. Their RSI values crossed above 50 from lower levels, signalling improving momentum and growing buying interest. Traders track this technical indicator for possible short-term bullish continuation across these counters.

Crude oil prices surged up to 12% after escalating tensions between the US, Israel and Iran disrupted Middle East supply routes. Upstream companies like ONGC and Oil India may benefit. Brokerages warn further escalation, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, could significantly raise prices and impact Indias economy.

Escalating Middle East conflict is pushing oil prices higher, with analysts predicting sustained elevated levels due to supply concerns, particularly through the vital Strait of Hormuz. Attacks have already disrupted tanker traffic, leading to significant crude futures surges. Experts warn of potential prices exceeding $100 if flows aren't restored quickly.

Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions shares will list on BSE and NSE on March 2. Grey market signals suggest a weak debut. The IPO saw mixed subscription, with institutional investors showing interest but retail and non-institutional investors remaining cautious. The company is India's largest commercial and industrial renewable energy provider.

Shree Ram Twistex shares will list on exchanges Monday. The company's Rs 110 crore IPO saw strong demand, subscribed nearly 44 times. High net-worth and retail investors showed significant interest. Despite this, the grey market premium is flat, suggesting a listing near the issue price of Rs 104.

Kiaasa Retail's shares are set for their BSE SME debut on March 2, with the grey market indicating a flat listing at its Rs 127 issue price. The Rs 70 crore IPO saw moderate overall subscription, though a small QIB portion was heavily oversubscribed. The company plans store expansion with IPO funds.

Accord Transformer and Switchgear's IPO saw overwhelming demand, subscribed 357 times, with a 9% grey market premium indicating a strong debut on the BSE SME platform on March 2. The Rs 26 crore issue, priced at Rs 46, will fund capital expenditure and working capital needs for the electrical equipment manufacturer.

The 200 DMA is used as a key indicator by traders for determining the overall trend in a particular stock.

Mobilise App Lab's IPO, oversubscribed 100 times, is set to debut on the NSE SME platform on March 2. With a grey market premium of 5%, shares are expected to list around Rs 84, signaling modest gains. The company, a SaaS IT solutions provider, plans to use IPO funds for product development, marketing, and infrastructure.

Investors sought safe havens as the euro slid and the Swiss franc rose following a U.S. and Israeli bombing of Iran that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, creating a power vacuum and escalating Middle East war risks. Oil prices surged nearly 9% on fears of trade disruption, impacting energy importers like China and Europe.

Gold prices saw a significant jump on Monday. This surge followed major strikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iran, leading to the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The events have heightened global tensions and economic uncertainty. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, reached its highest point in over four weeks.

Brent crude futures shot up to $82.37, the highest since January 2025, in the first futures trading after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran and killed its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Saturday. As of 0054 GMT, Brent futures were at $78.24 a barrel, up $5.37, or 7.37%.

Indian markets are poised for a gap-down opening with heightened volatility due to the US-Iran conflict. Oil marketing companies, paints, and aviation sectors may face margin pressure from rising input costs. Conversely, upstream oil producers and defense stocks could see positive sentiment.

Equity markets faced pressure last week due to geopolitical tensions and tech stock weakness. Investors are reacting to the Iran-US-Israel conflict, with analysts predicting a negative near-term impact. Several stocks like Adani Ports, Fino Payments Bank, GAIL, BEL, and SpiceJet are in focus due to various news developments.

Middle East conflict escalates, pushing oil prices sharply higher and triggering a sell-off in global shares. Investors seek refuge in the dollar, gold, and bonds as the Strait of Hormuz faces potential disruption. The prolonged conflict risks reigniting inflation and dampening economic demand worldwide.

Indian stock market benchmark Nifty faces a weak outlook for the upcoming week. Analysts suggest a potential fall to 24,700 and 24,300 if the 25,100 support level is breached. Investors are advised to consider selling opportunities on any rise.

Indian stock markets are bracing for a weak opening this week. Rising oil prices due to US-Israeli actions against Iran are a major concern. This geopolitical tension could push crude oil prices to $100 a barrel. Investors are likely to shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar.

Sebi Chairperson Tuhin Kanta Pandey emphasized a principle-driven, data-backed approach to curb excessive speculation in equity derivatives, particularly focusing on short-tenor index options. He clarified that recent measures target specific pockets of speculation, not the entire derivatives market, aiming to preserve liquidity and market function while ensuring responsible operation.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that India's economy is healthy and robust, with broad-based growth and increased investment. He anticipates interest rates will remain stable or decrease due to benign inflation. While acknowledging global uncertainties, Malhotra expressed confidence in the economy's sustained 'Goldilocks phase'.

Indian ships are told to avoid West Asian ports and the Strait of Hormuz. Major shipping companies have suspended bookings and rerouted vessels. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. This is a precautionary measure amid regional conflict. About 25 Indian vessels are being monitored.

Escalating Iran-Israel tensions threaten India's energy security, potentially raising oil prices and inflation. Disruptions in West Asia, a crucial $178.5 billion trading bloc for India, could impact the rupee and force exporters to find new routes. The Strait of Hormuz, vital for energy imports, remains a key chokepoint.

Indian onion exports to West Asia have stopped. Major ports in the region closed operations on Sunday. This has suspended vessel movements. Consignments are now stranded. The disruption occurs during the Ramadan shipping window. Overseas demand typically surges by 30% at this time. Farmers in northern Maharashtra face subdued prices.

The Emirates have been hit by Iranian strikes since Saturday in response to the joint Israeli-US attacks.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are raising concerns about energy costs for Indian companies. While overall energy expenses are low, sectors like cement, glass, and transportation face higher risks. These industries could see profit margins squeezed if global energy prices surge. The situation is being closely watched as it may affect current cost trends.

State-owned GIC Re will withdraw Marine Hull War Risk cover from several high-risk regions starting in early March, including the Persian Gulf, Black Sea, and Red Sea, amid rising geopolitical tensions. Ship owners should review their insurance arrangements, as there will be no war risk protection from GIC Re for operations in these regions after the cut-off date.

Several public charitable trusts have challenged the Income Tax Departments insistence that trust deeds must explicitly state they are irrevocable to retain tax-exempt status. Trusts and professional bodies argue that the law does not require such a clause and that public trusts are inherently irrevocable unless expressly stated otherwise. The matter is now before the Bombay High Court, with concerns that denial of registration renewals could jeopardise longstanding charitable institutions.

The Indian rupee is poised for a fall below 91.50 against the US dollar on Monday. Global oil prices and geopolitical tensions are driving this weakening. The Reserve Bank of India is expected to intervene to stabilize the currency. This comes after a period of revival for the rupee in February.

India's economic strength stems from stable policies and reforms. The nation is poised for significant growth, contrasting with global challenges. With a young workforce and digital advancements, India is set to influence global economic trends. This progress is a result of strategic government and RBI actions, aiming for developed economy status by 2047.

India's Goods and Services Tax collection saw a significant rise of 8.1 percent in February, reaching 1.84 lakh crore. This growth was fueled by strong domestic demand and increased revenue from imports. Experts highlight this as a sign of economic recovery and the positive impact of GST reforms. The data indicates a resilient Indian economy with steady consumption.

India's electronics and tech exports to the Gulf face potential disruption due to the Iran conflict. The UAE, a major buyer, has seen its infrastructure targeted. Shipments to the UAE and Saudi Arabia, crucial markets for Indian electronics, rely on routes through or near Iranian airspace. This situation is being closely monitored by the government.

The Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs is launching a new facility for manufacturer importers. Approved companies can now defer customs duty payments. This move aims to boost cash flow and support domestic manufacturing. The scheme will be operational from April 1, 2026, to March 31, 2028. Eligible firms will pay duties monthly instead of at clearance.

Escalating tensions in West Asia threaten to push up dal prices in India due to higher freight and insurance costs, industry officials warn.