The Economic Times

Indian stock markets closed higher Friday, boosted by IT, auto, and metal sectors, though banking stocks capped gains. Analysts express caution due to ongoing West Asian conflict, elevated oil prices, and persistent FII outflows. Nifty and Bank Nifty face resistance, with support levels identified. Auto and IT sectors show weakness, while specific stock recommendations are provided.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted 20% of global oil and LNG supply, triggering a severe energy crisis. Strikes on infrastructure have caused widespread damage, leading to a 50% surge in oil prices and threatening global food security due to fertilizer shortages.

A Financial Action Task Force report backs Indias concerns that the real risk in crypto lies in offshore, non-compliant virtual asset service providers (VASPs), not the asset class itself.

The Indian rupee experienced its sharpest single-day fall since late 2022, plummeting to a historic low of 93.73 against the dollar. Surging oil prices, driven by escalating West Asian conflicts, coupled with overseas investor outflows, significantly pressured the currency.

Despite weak broader markets and rising geopolitical tensions, select smallcap stocks delivered sharp gains this week, with some surging over 40%. The rally highlights pockets of strength in sectors like chemicals, energy, and industrials, even as inflation concerns and global uncertainties continue to weigh on overall market sentiment.

A growing Middle East conflict poses a risk of fresh global inflation. SBI Research reports that supply chains and asset classes could be affected. However, India's economy may face limited impact. Diversified crude oil imports and policy measures are expected to cushion the effects. Remittances from Gulf countries and crude oil prices remain key considerations for India.

Gold prices have unexpectedly fallen despite escalating geopolitical tensions, a departure from their safe-haven status. A strong U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields, and profit-taking after a prior rally are suppressing bullion. While the near-term outlook is choppy, long-term prospects remain constructive due to persistent geopolitical risks and inflation concerns.

Amid global market volatility, NSE's Harish K Ahuja advises retail investors against panic selling, urging patience and a long-term perspective. He highlighted that India's market fundamentals remain strong with positive GDP growth and industrial indicators, despite short-term fluctuations. Ahuja emphasized that disciplined, patient investors are likely to be rewarded.

Metal stocks have plunged recently due to geopolitical tensions and hawkish Fed commentary. However, experts anticipate a near-term surge in metal prices, driven by the Iran-US conflict and rising oil costs. Supply disruptions in the Middle East are particularly impacting steel and aluminum markets, with potential implications for Indian producers.

Global real estate investment is shifting. Geopolitical tensions are making investors cautious about Dubai. Capital is now flowing towards India's stable markets like Gurugram and Mumbai. Domestic demand is driving growth in India. Investors are prioritizing long-term fundamentals and quality assets. Dubai remains an option for rental income, but India is seen as a wealth creation hub.

Indian markets witnessed a broad-based sell-off amid escalating Middle East tensions and rising crude oil prices. Several stocks, including IDBI Bank and SpiceJet, declined sharply during the week. Geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and regulatory developments weighed on investor sentiment, dragging multiple sectors lower despite selective resilience in parts of the market.

Bitcoin traded in a narrow range amid cautious derivatives positioning, even as large holders continued accumulating. Institutional inflows into ETFs and stable price action indicate a consolidation phase. Analysts expect a decisive move once macro conditions improve, with $70,000 emerging as a key level for confirming any sustained upward momentum.

Israel, Iran war: Indian refiners plan to buy Iranian oil after the US temporarily lifted sanctions. Other Asian buyers are also checking possibilities. This move aims to ease an energy crunch. About 170 million barrels of Iranian crude are currently at sea. The waiver is for oil loaded by March 20 and discharged by April 19.

Nikhil Advani of LGT Wealth India advises investors to prioritise resilience amid rising geopolitical risks and market volatility. He recommends global diversification, defensive sector allocation, and phased investing, while highlighting opportunities in infrastructure and AI. ETFs and multi-asset strategies can help manage risk and capture long-term growth across global markets effectively.

Foreign portfolio investors pulled out Rs 52,703 crore from Indian equities in the first half of March, with financials bearing the brunt. Broad-based selling, rising crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions weighed on markets, while select inflows into capital goods and metals indicate continued interest in domestic capex and infrastructure themes.

Mirae Asset ShareKhans Somil Mehta advises investors to stay disciplined amid rising volatility driven by global tensions and crude oil prices. He recommends balanced portfolios, a focus on large-cap and quality sectors, and avoiding overvalued mid- and small-cap stocks, while maintaining a long-term investment approach to navigate uncertain market conditions.

Saurav Ghosh of Jiraaf advises investors to stay calm amid geopolitical volatility and use bonds as a strategic buffer. He highlights short-duration fixed income as a stable allocation and suggests deploying capital into equities during corrections, while closely tracking oil prices, inflation, and volatility indicators to navigate uncertain market conditions effectively.

Fourteen stocks from the BSE SmallCap index declined continuously over five trading sessions ending March 20, with losses of up to 23%. Despite the Sensex remaining largely flat, sharp volatility during the period highlights continued pressure in broader markets, particularly in smallcap stocks witnessing sustained selling across consecutive sessions.

The US has allowed a temporary waiver on Iranian oil sales to ease surging crude prices amid escalating geopolitical tensions. However, analysts warn that supply disruptions and the Strait of Hormuz crisis could keep prices elevated, with forecasts suggesting oil may rise further despite short-term relief measures from policy actions.

Amid rising geopolitical tensions, oil price volatility and uncertain interest rate outlook, Guy Spiers value investing principles offer timely guidance. His focus on discipline, intrinsic value, long-term thinking and avoiding market noise highlights how investors can navigate turbulence and make rational decisions in increasingly volatile global financial markets.

JP Morgan Chase Bank has agreed to pay 34 lakh rupees to Sebi following violations related to foreign portfolio investor laws. Their missteps include issuing FPI licenses to firms lacking proper UK registration and not accurately verifying the status of certain entities. Compounding these issues were significant delays in merger reporting, which further illuminated the compliance shortcomings.

India's financial hub is looking to introduce real-time euro foreign-exchange settlements. This move aims to boost financial ties with the European Union as a trade deal progresses. The regulatory body, IFSCA, has requested government approval for euro settlements alongside the US dollar. This follows the successful implementation of real-time dollar settlements, which significantly reduced transaction times and risks.

In a dramatic shift, global equity funds experienced a staggering exit of billions as investors reacted to rising inflation fears and escalating tensions in the Middle East. This selloff marked the most significant retreat in three months, prompting major central banks to hint at tightening their monetary policies.

In a striking turn of events, early March witnessed foreign investors withdrawing an unprecedented sum from India's financial landscape. This wave of selling, spurred by mounting global economic unease, has had ripple effects on the Bank Nifty, while sectors such as automobiles and telecom also faced significant capital outflows. This trend underscores a growing wariness among international investors.

The Indian stock markets experienced a positive turn on Friday, bouncing back from a sharp drop earlier in the week, buoyed by decreasing oil prices that eased investor anxiety. Nevertheless, both top indices wrapped up the week just below their starting points. Foreign investors took a step back, selling off shares, while domestic buyers remained active in the market.

In a dramatic turn of events, the Indian Rupee plunged sharply in a single trading session, marking its most significant drop since late 2022. This decline was fueled by soaring oil prices amid growing tensions in West Asia, pushing the currency to a new record low.

Iran has indicated readiness to allow Japanese vessels passage through the Strait of Hormuz. This vital oil route is crucial for Japan's energy needs. Talks are underway between Tehran and Tokyo regarding the strait's opening. The ongoing conflict and rising oil prices have prompted global action. Japan relies heavily on Middle Eastern oil imports via this waterway.

Oil prices have surged to their highest in nearly four years. Iraq declared force majeure on oilfields. The U.S. is deploying more troops to the Middle East amid escalating Iran tensions. Attacks on energy infrastructure continue. The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. Analysts expect prices to stay elevated. Restoration of oil flows could take months.

American buyers have stopped contacting Indian spice exporters. This is due to the Iran war. This trade disruption affects India's valuable farm exports. The US is India's largest spice market. This situation could lead to excess domestic supply and lower prices. Exporters and farmers face increased stress. Trade routes are disrupted, and freight costs are high.

New Income Tax Act rules are now in effect from April 1. These rules offer relief to taxpayers with increased house rent allowance limits in major cities. Employer-provided benefits like food coupons and cars are also expanded. Stricter disclosure requirements are introduced for businesses and professionals. Auditors and companies face greater responsibility in this compliance-driven regime.

India's core sector growth decelerated to a three-month low of 2.3% in February, impacted by subdued electricity generation and declining energy industries. Cement and steel showed growth, driven by government infrastructure initiatives, but overall industrial output is expected to face headwinds from the West Asia crisis.

New rules for export credit interest subvention are now in effect from January 2. Exporters will not receive benefits if their loan becomes a Non-Performing Asset. Early loan repayment will only receive subvention for the actual outstanding period. Digital processes are introduced for smoother claims. These changes aim to streamline benefits for trade and banks.

The technology involves ovum pick-up, in vitro fertilization, and embryo transfer. This opens new avenues for rapid genetic improvement of India's dairy breeds.

Border trade between India and China via Lipulekh Pass in Pithoragarh is set to resume. Preparations are underway for the trade session, typically from June to September. This move follows government directives and clearances. Traders can retrieve goods stored in Tibet. The resumption aims for better coordination and facilitation.

Goldman Sachs and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund acquired significant stakes in DLF Limited via block deals worth Rs 231 crore, even as the stock lags benchmarks and trades below key moving averages.

As per the changes, interest subvention shall not be admissible from the date on which the loan account is classified as a non-performing asset (NPA), and no subvention benefit shall be extended with effect from such date.

Ashish Kacholia bought shares worth Rs 9.3 crore in Aelea Commodities via a bulk deal as the stock trades below key averages after a sharp correction, with the seller fully exiting its stake.

India's Directorate General of Trade Remedies has recommended anti-dumping duties for five years on spandex and flexible slabstock polyol imports. These duties target products from China and Vietnam. The recommendations follow investigations into complaints about dumped goods hurting local manufacturers. The proposed duties aim to protect domestic industries from unfair pricing.

Two Federal Reserve officials said on Friday the Iran war and its impact on energy markets were clouding the outlook for the economy and monetary policy, as one policymaker laid out an outlook calling for notably more interest rate cuts than most U.S. central bank officials currently support.

The Reserve Bank of India on Friday said it will conduct an overnight variable rate repo (VRR) auction of Rs 1 lakh crore on March 23.

During a recent conference, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman highlighted the importance of easing tax payment processes for well-meaning citizens. She championed leveraging cutting-edge technology to pinpoint tax evaders. With the upcoming Income Tax Act, effective April 1, 2025, the goal is to transition India into a more tax-friendly environment.

Super Micro shares sank 27% on Friday after U.S. prosecutors charged three people linked with the company, including its co-founder, with helping smuggle billions of dollars worth of AI technology to China.

US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Friday said he was concerned about the impact of the US-Israel war on Iran on inflation due to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced the Income Tax Act 2025, replacing the 1961 Act with a simpler, more concise framework effective April 1, 2026. The new law aims to foster voluntary compliance through extensive stakeholder consultation and a focus on taxpayer partnership, not adversarial relationships.

India's Zetwerk plans to confidentially file draft papers for an initial public offering within the next one to two weeks, aiming to raise up to $550 million at a valuation of about $4 billion, two people with direct knowledge said.

FedEx shares surged about 7% in morning trading on Friday, after the package-delivery giant raised its full-year profit forecast and signaled steady shipping demand despite geopolitical tensions and surging fuel costs.

Aluminium prices steadied on Friday as investors balanced the competing impacts of the Iran war and lower supply from disrupted operations in the Middle East against weaker demand from a spike in oil prices.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said on Friday she's notably more in the way of interest rate cuts relative to her colleagues.

Wall Street's main indexes opened lower on Friday as the Iran war approached its fourth week, roiling energy markets and prompting investors to aggressively reprice bets on the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cuts.