The Economic Times

MCX shares are in focus as Indias commodity exchange opens for a rare Sunday trading session alongside the Union Budget, as gold and silver prices suffer a sharp global sell-off amid dollar strength and shifting expectations around US Federal Reserve leadership.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that the US central bank should not cut interest rates further unless the job market weakens or inflation drops. He believes the current policy rate is neutral, with the economy poised for above-trend growth.

US Federal Reserve's Michelle Bowman still favors interest rate cuts, but voted to hold steady for more data. She anticipates three quarter-percentage-point reductions this year, emphasizing a measured pace. Despite a fragile job market, stabilization signs allow for a brief pause to assess policy impact before further easing.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi highlighted export benefits from a weaker yen, contrasting with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama's intervention threats. While Takaichi sees opportunities for industries like food and automobiles, the yen's decline fuels inflation and prompts central bank rate hike signals. Investor concerns over Japan's finances are evident as bond yields hit record highs.

Hindustan Zinc shares will be in focus later today after silver experienced its largest single-day drop on record. The white metal plunged significantly on MCX and internationally, impacting the Vedanta subsidiary's stock. This decline follows a strong rally and a recent Offer For Sale by its promoter.

As long as the stock is priced above the 200-day SMA on the daily timeframe, it is generally considered to be in an overall uptrend.

Over the last 15 years, Sensex and Nifty have shown a mixed but slightly positive record on Budget days, with average gains of 0.35% for Sensex. While intraday volatility is common, the market tends to perform better in the weeks and months following the budget announcements, indicating a positive bias for investors who stagger purchases.

As Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman prepares the Union Budget for FY2026-27, a core team of senior bureaucrats is shaping its fiscal strategy. Anuradha Thakur, Arvind Shrivastava, Vumlunmang Vualnam, M Nagaraju, Arunish Chawla, K Moses Chalai, and V Anantha Nageswaran are key figures. Their work involves taxation, expenditure, disinvestment, and financial sector policy.

Investors are now selling American assets. This trend began after tariffs caused market turmoil. Recent policies from the Trump administration are causing renewed investor worry. This shift is leading to a weaker U.S. dollar. Gold and silver prices have reached record highs. The U.S. stock market has stalled. International investors are seeing a significant change in investment dynamics.

India's Union Budget for FY2026-27 is projected at Rs 54.1 lakh crore, a 7.9 per cent increase. This signals a calibrated fiscal consolidation path. The fiscal deficit is targeted at 4.16 per cent of GDP. Strong real economic momentum supports this budget. GST reforms are boosting urban demand and growth.

Indian stock markets anticipate a positive opening today. Investors await the federal budget presentation for insights into government spending and support for export sectors. The budget aims to balance growth initiatives with fiscal discipline. Expectations are for measures to boost domestic manufacturing and rural demand. This could provide a much-needed boost to equities after a challenging start to the year.

Bitcoin experienced a significant decline, falling 6.53% to $78,719.63 on Saturday, continuing its downward trend. This drop follows concerns that a potential new Fed chair might tighten liquidity, impacting speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Ether also saw a substantial fall, reflecting broader struggles in the crypto market.

Budget 2026: The government is likely to aim for a fiscal deficit at 4.2% of GDP for 2026-27, down from 4.4% this fiscal year. Gross borrowing is expected to rise to between Rs 16 lakh crore and Rs 16.8 lakh crore ($174 billion-$183 billion) from Rs 14.6 lakh crore this year.

ITC's market value has dropped significantly following a recent tax hike on cigarettes. Investors are now looking to the upcoming Budget for clarity on future taxation. While the core business shows resilience, near-term pressure on volumes and margins is expected. The company's diversified operations offer a buffer against these challenges.

Indian stock markets approach the Union Budget 2026 with caution, facing a fragile footing and weak sentiment. Analysts anticipate a low-key budget, emphasizing fiscal discipline, continuity in capital gains taxation, and visible capital expenditure to steady nerves and maintain market engagement.

Budget week inflates option premiums due to market uncertainty, with Nifty ATM straddles consistently opening high. While volatility rises pre-Budget, an IV Crush consistently deflates premiums post-speech. Defined-risk strategies like Iron Flies and Condors proved most successful, limiting losses during extreme moves.

Foreign investors have withdrawn billions from Indian stocks. Markets eagerly await Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's Budget today. The government is considering tax relief for foreign portfolio investors. Broader reforms to attract capital are also anticipated. The Budget's focus will be on boosting earnings growth and offering tax incentives to encourage foreign investment back into India.

Indian equity benchmarks closed lower on Friday, with the Nifty down 0.4%, as markets await budget announcements and global cues. The India VIX rose 2%, indicating increased market fear. Foreign portfolio investors were net buyers, while domestic institutional investors were net sellers.

Stocks to Watch: Indian markets closed lower on Friday. Investors showed caution ahead of the Union Budget. Several companies like IDFC First Bank, Sun Pharma, and Bajaj Auto announced their third-quarter results. Adani Green issued a clarification on a US civil case. The government plans to offload its stake in IDBI Bank. Deepak Kapoor resigned from Delhivery's board.

Indian stock markets are trading today, Sunday, February 1, for the Union Budget 2026 presentation. Both NSE and BSE are open for a full trading session, a rare occurrence allowing real-time investor reaction to Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's announcements. Commodity markets are also operating, with investors cautiously awaiting policy continuity and fiscal discipline amid weak sentiment.

Traditionally, Part A of the budget speech has carried the bulk of the policy announcements and economic details, while Part B was essentially focused on tax-related announcements. In a departure from the practice followed over the past decades, the FM is expected to devote considerable time and emphasis to Part B.

Sebi chief Tuhin Kanta Pandey urged financial sector stakeholders to prioritize professional conscience over mere technical compliance, emphasizing that ethical substance, not just rules, prevents corporate failures. He highlighted that areas like valuations and ESG disclosures require judgment, making technical compliance insufficient and underscoring the crucial role of chartered accountants as custodians of trust.

India's hospitality sector is attracting significant, low-profile investment, with approximately $2 billion flowing into operational hotel properties. Investors, including institutions and family offices, are prioritizing early cash flows and reduced risk, leading to a seller's market for quality assets. Recent deals span diverse locations and hotel sizes, highlighting a robust trend in the industry.

Union Budget 2026: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to make parliamentary history with her ninth consecutive Budget presentation. This year's Budget acts as a bridge, focusing on smoother implementation of tax laws and addressing business friction points rather than major announcements.

Asked about the strategic priorities in the US, he added: Not only the US, but we have interest in selling innovative medicines globally... for emerging markets we are looking at tuck-ins or smaller acquisitions which we can look at integrating with our existing business to get scale in the emerging markets. Shanghvi added.

India's ambitious USD 2 trillion export goal is now projected for around 2032. Global uncertainties and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic have shifted the timeline from the initial 2030 target. Minister Piyush Goyal expressed confidence in achieving this milestone. Free trade agreements are expected to boost opportunities for domestic exporters, attracting investors through stability and predictability.

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal is confident the 2026-27 Union Budget will be a good one. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present her ninth budget on February 1. The budget aims to sustain growth and maintain fiscal discipline. It will address global trade frictions and domestic economic pressures. This budget presentation is a historic first for India.

India and the US are making significant progress on a bilateral trade agreement, with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal expressing optimism for a swift conclusion and good news soon. Both nations are committed to finalizing the pact, with discussions also covering critical minerals and defense. Recent high-level meetings indicate a renewed push to seal the deal.

India's trade pact with the European Union is set to significantly boost exports. The agreement, expected this year, will grant 99 percent of Indian goods duty-free access to Europe. This move is projected to double India's exports to the EU within five years. Businesses are encouraged to expand and capitalize on this opportunity.

SBI Chairman CS Setty advocates for equal tax treatment for bank deposits and equity investments. He believes the equity market has matured, warranting an end to special tax benefits. This call comes as household savings shift towards equities, impacting bank deposit mobilization. Banks need new financing avenues for infrastructure projects amid this financialization trend.

Budget 2026: Government revenue for FY26 is projected to fall short by INR 1.4 trillion, primarily due to lower tax collections. However, increased non-tax revenue and controlled expenditure, especially a significant rise in capital spending, are expected to narrow the fiscal deficit to 4.3% of GDP. This indicates a prudent fiscal approach.

Sun Pharma announced strong third quarter results. Sales rose 15% to Rs 15,469 crore and net profit climbed 16% to Rs 3,368 crore. Growth was fueled by its branded businesses in India and emerging markets, along with global innovative medicines. The company also declared an interim dividend.

Gold and silver are stabilising after their worst-ever single-day crash on MCX, with traders bracing for fresh volatility as the Union Budget approaches. Analysts say the correction reflects a leverage washout, not a trend reversal, with key support zones likely to guide the next leg of the precious metals rally.

Markets slipped on Friday as investors turned defensive ahead of Sundays Union Budget, with IT and metal stocks weighing on sentiment. Analysts highlighted persistent volatility amid global uncertainties, Fed leadership changes and FII pressure. With key levels holding firm, traders now await Budget cues to determine the markets next decisive move.

Indian markets experienced a downturn on Friday, with Nifty ending its winning streak due to selling in key sectors. Geopolitical worries, the upcoming Union Budget, and a weakening rupee contributed to subdued sentiment. Analysts anticipate volatility during Sunday's special trading session, advising a cautious, hedged approach ahead of the budget announcement.

Nifty ended the week with modest gains as markets stayed range-bound ahead of the Union Budget. The index defended key moving averages and hovered near a crucial trendline. With resistance at 25,500 and support at 24,75024,900, traders should stay cautious and focus on stock-specific setups until post-Budget clarity emerges.

Indias export strategy is shifting beyond its dependence on the US, with fresh FTAs across Europe, the UK, Middle East and Oceania. The EU deal alone opens tariff-free access for 99% of Indian goods. This diversification strengthens Indias trade resilience and reduces vulnerabilities tied to geopolitical uncertainty.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to present the Budget 2026, focusing on customs reforms and fiscal consolidation. Key numbers to watch include the fiscal deficit at 4.4% of GDP, capital expenditure of 11.2 lakh crore, and a debt roadmap aiming to reduce debt-to-GDP. Tax revenue is estimated at 42.7 lakh crore, with GST projected at 11.78 lakh crore.

IDFC First Bank posted a strong Q3FY26 performance with net profit rising 48% to Rs 503 crore and NII up 12% year-on-year. Asset quality improved with lower gross NPAs, while loan growth remained broad-based. The bank saw steady momentum in credit cards and wealth management, supported by easing provisions.

Historical data from the past 15 years shows that pre-Budget corrections in the Sensex and Nifty often set the stage for post-Budget rebounds. Large-cap indices recover quickly, while midcaps and smallcaps show gradual gains. Budget 2026 is expected to focus on fiscal prudence, infrastructure, MSMEs, and growth support amid global headwinds.

The companys revenue from operations jumped 13% to Rs 15,520 crore, the company said in a regulatory filing. This translates to a 13% jump from Rs 13,675 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Union Budget 2026-27 amidst global trade tensions and domestic economic complexities. Expectations are high for increased public spending to boost growth, while maintaining fiscal discipline. Industry bodies urge focus on infrastructure, innovation, and export support, balancing resilience with growth enablement.

Union Budget 2026 sees midcap stars like L&T Finance, National Aluminium, Aditya Birla Capital, and Ashok Leyland delivering gains up to 95% since last year.

Market expert Sudip Bandyopadhyay suggests Budget 2026 can stabilize equity sentiment by addressing FPI concerns, particularly through the removal of long-term capital gains tax. A clear divestment strategy and targeted sectoral support in banking, BFSI, defence, and infrastructure are also highlighted as crucial for boosting market confidence and encouraging foreign investment amid global uncertainties.

Market expert Sunil Subramaniam anticipates Budget 2026 could be a positive trigger amid weak equity sentiment, driven by reform-led optimism. He suggests AI-focused initiatives and support for private capex, including expanding PLI schemes and public sector bank financing, could attract foreign capital and boost the economy.

The India-EU Free Trade Agreement offers significant preferential market access, boosting Indian industries like Capital Goods, Engineering, Metals, and IT. While some sectors see neutral impacts, smaller labour-intensive segments and defense stand to gain from duty elimination and expanded export horizons. This pact reconfigures competitive structures, fostering export growth and value-chain participation.

As Budget 2026 approaches, investors in virtual digital assets are seeking relief on taxation, particularly the ability to claim losses, as gains remain taxed at 30%. Foreign investors are also demanding tax certainty in international taxation, especially with India's transition to a new Income Tax Act.

Investors eye the Union Budget 2026 for policy direction amidst global uncertainty. Tata Asset Management's CIO Rahul Singh anticipates a focus on capital expenditure and customs duty rationalisation, with limited room for fiscal stimulus. He notes a decline in India's valuation premium, making it more attractive for emerging market flows.