The Economic Times

US Vice President JD Vance and economic adviser Peter Navarro had reportedly blocked a trade deal with India, according to a report, The deal, first announced by PM Modi in February 2025, is aimed to significantly boost bilateral trade between the two two countries but is yet to be finalised even after multiple rounds of negotiations.

The government has extended deadlines for mandatory quality norms on aluminium cans used for alcoholic drinks, soft drinks and food processing, easing fears of shortages ahead of the peak summer season. Industry executives said the move will help balance rising demand and limited supply, as domestic can capacity remains more than 20% short.

The PFRDA has formed a 9-member committee, SAARG, to modernize the NPS investment framework. Headed by Narayan Ramachandran, the panel will review existing guidelines, benchmark them globally, and recommend enhancements for long-term wealth creation, diversification, and risk management. The committee has nine months to submit its report.

A proposed free trade agreement between India and the European Union promises a significant boost for India's apparel exports. The pact offers a unique chance for the garment sector to gain zero-duty market access. This development is expected to drive employment, support small businesses, and enhance India's global standing in apparel manufacturing.

Welcoming EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic, Piyush Goyal said, pleased to agree that sustained and constructive engagement between us and our teams over the past year has brought us closer to a fruitful outcome.

Union Budget: Indias urban population is set to rise sharply, with cities already contributing about 60% of GDP. The focus has shifted from whether urbanisation will shape growth to how it is guided, especially beyond major metros, making the Union Budget a key policy signal.

The iSIF Hybrid LongShort Fund blends equity and debt with limited short exposure using derivatives and special situations. It aims for smoother, risk-adjusted returns across cycles by adjusting net exposure based on valuations and market conditions. Derivatives are used for both hedging and income generation, while limited liquidity makes it suitable for investors seeking lower volatility and longer horizons.

Retail investors have stayed committed to Indian markets through multiple crises, but their confidence must be continually reinforced as savings grow. Taxation, especially STT, CTT, and capital gains, adds friction and makes India less competitive globally. Predictable, rational tax policy and long-term support for mutual funds are crucial to sustain domestic capital formation. Higher capex, especially in defence and infrastructure, is essential for long-term growth.

As the Nifty slips below its 200-day moving average amid sustained FII outflows and a weakening rupee, market sentiment has turned sharply cautious ahead of the Budget. Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, shares his January expiry strategy, key levels to track, and stock ideas in a volatile pre-Budget environment.

India's Union Budget 2026 aims to boost data centre capacity with incentives like subsidised land and tax holidays. However, the article questions if sustainability can match this rapid growth, highlighting the sector's high power and water consumption. Experts urge targeted incentives for green technologies and renewable energy to ensure environmentally responsible expansion.

Indian stock markets will be closed on Monday, January 26, for Republic Day, affecting trading across NSE, BSE and MCX. The closure marks the second market holiday of 2026. Trading will resume on Tuesday, January 27. For the rest of the year, exchanges will remain shut for 14 sessions, including Holi, Ram Navami, Diwali, Christmas and other national and regional observances.

Union Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan approved the procurement of 3.37 lakh metric tons of tur in Maharashtra. This decision under the Price Support Scheme will benefit farmers. The procurement will be done at a Minimum Support Price of approximately Rs 2696 crore. Chouhan instructed officials to ensure direct procurement from farmers and transparency through modern technology.

Buoyant revenue streams give the government room to keep capital expenditure spending steady, at about 3.1 per cent of GDP, while continuing on the path of fiscal consolidation, according to a pre-Budget report by ICICI Bank Global Markets.

A new India-EU free trade agreement, set for announcement on January 27, is projected to boost trade and lower costs, according to think tank GTRI. The agreement is expected to benefit both economies due to their complementary roles in the global value chain, with India exporting labor-intensive goods and the EU supplying capital and technology.

As Budget 2026 approaches, WhiteOak CEO Aashish Somaiyaa says the focus should shift from headline reforms to fixing structural market frictions. He argues that the current securities transaction tax and dividend taxation framework amounts to double taxation and needs review. Somaiyaa also highlights Atmanirbhar Bharat as a continuity-led strategy, explains the cyclical nature of FII flows, and stresses that macro stability will drive foreign investor confidence.

The upcoming Union Budget will likely continue the government's focus on capital expenditure. Policymakers are expected to prioritize public investment to sustain economic growth. Major policy shifts or tax changes are not anticipated. The budget may allocate funds to defence, agriculture, and rural development. Support for manufacturing and exports is also possible.

The combined market valuation of nine of the top-10 most valued firms slumped by Rs 2.51 lakh crore last week, with Reliance Industries taking the biggest hit, in line with a weak trend in equities.

Stock market is gearing up for an eventful week ahead where key triggers such as quarterly earnings from corporates, the US Fed interest rate decision and the upcoming Union Budget for 2026-27 would grab the limelight, analysts said.

Ace investor Mukul Mahavir Agrawal reshuffled his Rs 6,500-crore equity portfolio in Q3, adding new names and adjusting stakes across several holdings. He entered stocks such as Hindustan Construction and Alcargo Logistics, increased exposure in Vasa Denticity and Vikran Engineering, and trimmed or exited positions in firms like Monolithisch, Pearl Global and Stanley Lifestyles. The moves reflect tactical repositioning after 2025s sharp smallcap selloff.

The Indian rupee has reached a historic low against the US dollar. This will increase the cost of imports like oil and electronics. Foreign education and travel will also become more expensive. However, Indian exporters will benefit from receiving more rupees for their dollar earnings. This situation presents both challenges and opportunities for the Indian economy.

India begins 2026 on a strong economic note. Domestic demand will drive growth, expected to be among the world's highest. Inflation remains controlled, supporting growth-friendly monetary policy. Earnings growth is set to continue. While global factors will influence markets, India's economy shows stability and selective opportunities. Key sectors like financials and capital goods are poised for gains.

Axis Bank is expected to post a mixed Q3 performance, with healthy loan and deposit growth supporting balance sheet expansion, but pressure on margins weighing on profitability. Brokerages see NII rising about 4% year-on-year, while PAT is likely to decline around 8%. Loan growth is seen rebounding to about 14% YoY, with deposits growing faster than the industry.

European Union and Vietnam are set to elevate their relationship. European Council President Antonio Costa visits Hanoi on Thursday. This move aims to strengthen international partnerships amidst global trade challenges. The upgrade places the EU on par with other major global powers for Vietnam. Cooperation is expected in technology, energy, and critical minerals.

India Union Budget 2026: India's upcoming Union Budget faces a complex economic landscape. Business leaders are confident in domestic consumption and political stability. However, job creation, inequality and global risks are major concerns. The survey indicates a preference for fiscal flexibility to navigate these challenges. Policymakers are urged to balance growth with employment and social welfare.

Low liquidity, high volatility and limited transparency make them vulnerable to manipulation and sudden price swings.

India's global strategy focuses on trade deals and boosting local production. The upcoming Budget 2026 is expected to enhance these efforts. Key areas include simplifying customs, promoting domestic manufacturing through incentives, and supporting MSMEs. These steps aim to strengthen India's position as a competitive exporter and drive economic growth.

Based on consensus estimates, Trendlyne data shows that a number of midcap stocks are poised to deliver strong returns over the next 12 months.

AI's future in the Global South hinges on overcoming connectivity, cost, and compute barriers. Edge AI, running models directly on devices, offers a practical solution by improving speed, offline functionality, privacy, and reducing cloud expenses. This approach, driven by better chips, smaller models, and advanced math, promises inclusive AI for regions with unique constraints.

India and the European Union are nearing a free trade agreement that could slash import duties on automobiles, including electric vehicles, to 10-15%. This move is anticipated to boost European luxury EV sales in India and position the country as a competitive manufacturing hub for these vehicles.

The US has hinted at removing the additional 25% tariff on India after New Delhi sharply cut Russian oil imports. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Indias purchases have collapsed, calling the tariffs a success. Imports fell about 30% year-on-year in early January. India maintains its strategic autonomy even as Washington weighs tougher trade measures.

Budget: expectations would be that it would be yet another opportunity to deepen reforms by pushing manufacturing competitiveness, improving human capital, modernising tax and trade regimes, and reinforcing investment in emerging technologies that will lay out a roadmap for resilient, inclusive, and innovation-led growth.

The upcoming India-EU summit on January 27 will focus on a joint strategic agenda to deepen cooperation across prosperity, technology, security, and connectivity. Leaders are also set to announce the conclusion of the long-pending free trade agreement, aiming to boost bilateral trade and investment.

West Bengal shows strong control over revenue spending in the current fiscal year. This is a positive sign compared to other states. However, the state's capital expenditure has declined significantly. This trend has continued from the previous fiscal year. The report highlights this mixed fiscal performance.

Mala Gaonkar's SurgoCap Partners experienced a rapid ascent, tripling its assets to $6 billion within three years of its 2023 launch. This marked one of the fastest-growing debuts in hedge fund history, with Gaonkar leveraging data science to invest across various sectors. She emphasizes a small, collaborative team size for idea generation, drawing parallels to Jeff Bezos's wo-pizza-box team concept.

According to VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, FPIs not only continued their selling spree in the week ended January 23 but also intensified it. The sustained outflows have wiped off Rs 16 trillion in market capitalisation for the week alone, contributing to a 2.5% decline in the Nifty index.

Markets experienced a sharp corrective move, with Nifty ending lower after a volatile week and breaking below key technical levels. India VIX surged, signaling increased risk perception. Despite a potential technical rebound due to oversold conditions, volatility is expected to remain elevated, especially with F&O expiry.

Adani Group companies clarified via stock exchange filings that they are not parties to any US SEC legal proceedings. Reports indicated the SEC sought court approval to serve summons to Gautam Adani and Sagar Adani via email after Indian authorities denied previous requests. The group reiterated no allegations are against the company.

Despite the decline in overall portfolio value during FY26, stock-level performance remains encouraging. More than half of the holdings delivered positive returns, with 11 stocks surging between 25% and 90% within a span of less than 10 months in FY26.

Eight high-potential Indian startups will showcase innovative agri-food and agri-tech solutions at Gulfood 2026 in Dubai, aligning with the government's 'Farm to Foreign' vision. APEDA's BHARATI Pavilion will highlight export-ready ventures, while a Culinary Area will feature live demonstrations of Indian cuisine, underscoring India's rich food heritage and diverse ingredients.

Indian equity markets closed the week on a subdued note, impacted by profit-booking and foreign investor outflows. Global trade concerns and domestic earnings disappointments weighed on sentiment. Analysts suggest caution ahead of the Budget, with Nifty facing resistance and broader markets showing weakness. PSU banks are outperforming private peers.

India is progressing towards fully automated Income Tax Return filing. Significant steps have already been taken to simplify the process. Further enhancements are needed in data reporting and tax laws. While complete automation is achievable for simple returns, complex cases will retain existing frameworks. The tax system is evolving for a better taxpayer experience.

Kotak Mahindra Bank has announced a solid financial performance for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026. The private lender saw its standalone net profit climb 4% year-on-year to Rs 3,446 crore. This growth was supported by a 5% rise in net interest income, reaching Rs 7,565 crore, indicating a healthy expansion in its core lending operations.

Ultratech Cement has announced strong financial results for the third quarter of FY26. The company's profit after tax saw a significant 32% year-on-year increase, reaching Rs 1,792 crore. Net sales also climbed by 22.5% year-on-year to Rs 21,506 crore. These figures exclude the impact of the New Labour Code.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated potential removal of 25% extra tariff on India if its Russian oil purchases continue to decline, calling the outcome a huge success. This comes as the US Congress debates a bill that could impose a 500% duty on countries buying Russian oil, while India maintains its focus on securing affordable energy for its citizens.

Silver has surged past $100 per ounce for the first time, driven by a confluence of factors including a weakening dollar, robust industrial demand for green technologies, and supply constraints. Analysts highlight its evolving role from a safe haven to a critical mineral, with expectations of continued strength amid global economic shifts and geopolitical uncertainties.

2026 Budget household factors: Indian households anticipate the Budget to bring financial relief. Expectations focus on income tax reductions and measures to lower the cost of goods through local production. Citizens also seek employment schemes and affordable housing support. These demands highlight a desire for immediate financial stability and long-term economic strengthening.

In the upcoming week, a host of companies have announced such actions, ranging from high-percentage interim dividends to rights issues at discounted prices. The following slides provide a detailed, day-wise summary based on StockEdge data.

Union Budget of India: The upcoming Union Budget is poised to prioritise economic stability and fiscal prudence, benefiting from higher-than-expected growth and lower inflation. Experts anticipate a focus on maintaining sound public finances and securing trade deals with the US and EU to boost exporters amid global uncertainties. While central government fiscal targets are likely to be met, state deficits remain a concern.

The primary market anticipates a quiet week with no mainboard public offerings. Investor focus will shift to SME platforms, featuring five IPOs. Shadowfax Technologies is set for its mainboard listing. SME IPOs from Accretion Nutraveda, Msafe Equipments, Kanishk Aluminium India, and CKK Retail Mart will open. Listing performance is expected to vary.