The Economic Times

As global macro conditions shift, investors are rethinking asset allocation for 2026. Gurmeet Chadha of Complete Circle Consultants highlights constructive prospects for Indian equities, caution on silver, moderation in global AI-led trades, and potential outperformance in long-duration bonds, supported by fiscal strength and likely inclusion in the global bond index.

Sebi Chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey said the regulator is in the advanced stages of granting a no-objection certificate for the long-pending NSE IPO, likely within this month. NSEs listing process, delayed since 2016 due to regulatory clearances, has progressed after corrective measures and the settlement of past cases.

Avenue Supermarts, the parent of DMart, posted strong Q3 FY26 numbers with consolidated PAT rising 18.3% YoY to Rs 855.92 crore, compared to Rs 723.72 crore a year earlier. Revenue from operations grew 13.3% YoY to Rs 18,100.88 crore, up from Rs 15,972.55 crore in the same quarter last fiscal.

Nifty broke below its 500-point trading range, ending the week down 2.45% amid global uncertainty and a spike in volatility. Technical indicators signal weakening momentum, with support at 25,50025,300 crucial. Sectoral trends show Services, Pharma, Infra and BFSI outperforming, while FMCG, Energy and Realty lag on relative strength.

Aberdeen Investments is reducing its stake in Venezuela's defaulted bonds. These bonds have seen a significant price increase over the past year. Portfolio manager Kevin Daly cited high tail risk as the reason for this prudent move. Despite recent gains, the path to debt restructuring remains challenging due to ongoing US sanctions.

Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte confirmed a $3 billion mortgage bond purchase occurred Friday, the day after President Trump ordered a $200 billion buy to lower housing costs. Pulte also stated that the privatization of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae remains a possibility, though he did not provide a timeline for the full $200 billion purchase.

Argentina has successfully paid $4.3 billion to sovereign bondholders, meeting its January 9 deadline. This crucial payment, despite low foreign reserves, aims to boost investor confidence and reopen international capital markets. The government is keen to signal stability as more significant repayments loom, including to the IMF. Analysts are watching for a positive market reaction and potential reserve rebuilding.

India and EU trade ministers met in Brussels. They urged officials to finalize the proposed free trade agreement. Negotiations are progressing across various tracks. Both sides are committed to resolving outstanding issues. This aims to conclude the trade deal soon. The meetings focused on market access and rules of origin.

Markets witnessed one of the sharpest weekly declines in recent months as global risks and heavy selling dragged indices lower. Technical expert Sudeep Shah explains whether this move signals deeper correction and outlines key levels, sector strategies and near-term market triggers.

Bitcoin trades within a narrow $88,000 to $92,000 range as its current drawdown remains far shallower than in previous market cycles. Analysts highlight muted volatility, steady capital flows and neutral technical indicators amid a wait for fresh macro catalysts.

Silvers explosive 170% surge in 2025 may be just the beginning, says Motilal Oswal, which believes the metal is entering a multi-year supercycle. Strong industrial demand, tight supply, rising ETF flows and supportive macro trends could push MCX Silver to Rs 3.20 lakh in 2026 despite expected volatility.

India's record rice harvest is flooding the global market, pressuring prices as demand weakens and key buyers impose stricter import rules. Farmers may face significant rate cuts to compete with rivals like Thailand and Vietnam. Analysts predict a potential drop of $15 to $25 per ton by spring due to a lack of immediate African and Middle Eastern interest.

Stablecoin transactions surged to a record $33 trillion in 2025, driven by supportive US policy under President Trump and rapid institutional adoption. USDC led with $18.3 trillion in flows, outpacing Tethers USDT. Rising usage outside DeFi signals broader mainstream demand for digital dollars amid global economic uncertainty.

European stock markets reached a new peak on Friday. Glencore's significant jump fueled the rise. Technology stocks also performed strongly, marking their best week in almost two years. This rebound shows investor resilience despite global concerns. Defence stocks saw notable weekly gains. The US jobs report indicated cooling growth, reinforcing expectations of steady interest rates.

Moodys has affirmed Shriram Finances Ba1 rating and revised its outlook to positive following MUFG Banks planned $4.4 billion investment for a 20% stake. The capital infusion is expected to strengthen SFLs capitalisation, funding access, and profitability, positioning it among Indias highest-capitalised non-banking finance companies.

Retail investors have steadily increased holdings in select small-cap stocks, with 12 counters delivering strong FY26 gains of up to 65%, highlighting growing confidence despite broader market weakness.

Indias rice exports rose 19.4% last year to 21.55 million tonnes, the second-highest level on record, after the government lifted all export curbs. Officials said shipments recovered quickly from March as supplies improved on record production and the last restrictions imposed in 202223 were removed.

TCS, Kotak Bank and six other companies are set for stock splits, bonus issues, and dividends next week, offering opportunities for investors.

India's defence manufacturing sector sees enhanced medium-term visibility due to accelerated capital acquisition approvals, with FY26 year-to-date clearances nearly double the annual outlay. This robust pipeline, spanning diverse military needs and emphasizing integrated systems, de-risks future order inflows for the sector over the next two to four years.

Indian markets remained under pressure as the Sensex declined for a fifth straight session. Twelve BSE 100 stocks recorded losses in all five sessions, reflecting sustained selling across sectors amid broader market weakness and cautious investor sentiment.

Indias primary market gears up for a busy week as six IPOs open for subscription, led by Amagi Media Labs. Alongside five SME issues, strong demand for Bharat Coking Coal highlights investor interest amid ongoing market volatility.

BNP Paribas expects the Nifty 50 to reach 29,500 by end-2026 and has identified 17 top stock picks across autos, banks, IT, telecom, consumer and healthcare sectors, led by Maruti Suzuki, Infosys, Swiggy and HDFC Bank.

IREDA posted a 15.4% YoY rise in Q3 FY26 PAT at Rs 1,381 crore, with revenue up 28.2% to Rs 6,042 crore. Loan sanctions jumped 29% YoY to Rs 40,100 crore, while disbursements rose 44% to Rs 24,903 crore. Strong domestic borrowings and diversified clean energy lending underpin robust growth and execution visibility.

Tejas Networks reported a Rs 196.55 crore loss in Q2, impacted by an 88% revenue drop and a significant BSNL order deferral. Despite a large inventory, the company secured private 5G wins and PLI incentives, signaling future growth potential amidst current financial challenges.

The dollar strengthened on Friday following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs growth, suggesting the Federal Reserve may hold interest rates steady. The yen weakened as Japan's Prime Minister considers a snap election, while the euro declined against the dollar amid mixed European economic data.

Weather Report Today: While dense fog and cold wave conditions are likely to continue in north and east India, the IMD has warned of heavy rainfall in Tamil Nadu and Chennai for January 10. Under the influence of deep depression over Bay of Bengal, most coastal areas of Tamil Nadu are likely to get moderate to heavy rainfall.

Oil prices saw a significant jump on Friday. Growing concerns over supply disruptions in Iran due to intensifying protests are impacting the market. Escalating attacks in Russia's war in Ukraine are also contributing to these worries. Despite these factors, global oil inventories are rising, potentially capping further price increases. Market focus is now on Venezuelan oil export deals.

A think tank argues that trade deals hinge on policy alignment, not leader calls. This challenges US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's claim that the India-US trade agreement stalled due to a missed phone call. GTRI asserts that complex negotiations break down over substantive issues like tariffs and market access. The trade impasse reflects hard policy choices, not symbolic gestures.

Gold prices surged this week, nearing record highs, driven by weaker U.S. jobs data and escalating global uncertainties. Investors are anticipating Federal Reserve rate cuts, a traditional boost for precious metals. Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Ukraine and unrest in Iran, further fueled demand.

The Indian stock market has been on a downward trend, recording losses for the fifth straight day. Investors are pulling back on their portfolios in light of impending US job statistics and a critical Supreme Court verdict on tariffs.

Next week, Torrent Pharmaceuticals is set to launch a hefty debt sale, targeting around 12,500 crore in fundraising. This capital will play a critical role in facilitating the company's acquisition of JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals. The strategy includes issuing commercial paper and non-convertible debentures, showcasing the increasing reliance on debt markets for corporate buyouts.

U.S. stocks reached record highs Friday following a mixed jobs report. While hiring slowed, the unemployment rate improved, suggesting a stable job market that might delay but not eliminate Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Energy and housing sectors saw significant gains, while General Motors faced a substantial hit due to its EV pullback.

Sebi has approved five IPOs across sectors including digital lending, alcoholic beverages, textiles and precision engineering. Major issuers include Kissht, Alcobrew Distilleries, Aastha Spintex, Indo MIM and Kusumgar, signalling a strong and diverse primary market pipeline.

Walmart is set to join the prestigious Nasdaq-100 Index. The retail giant will replace British drugmaker AstraZeneca. This move takes effect on January 20. Walmart is also joining the Nasdaq-100 Equal Weighted Index and the Nasdaq-100 Ex-Tech Sector Index. Companies often switch exchanges for better alignment with investor bases and services. The Nasdaq-100 is known for including top non-financial companies.

Indian markets are off to a strong start in 2026, but investors should brace for potential volatility. Corporate earnings, crucial inflation data, and escalating geopolitical tensions are on the horizon. Despite a robust bull market, analysts caution that current optimism might be overlooking upcoming challenges, urging a look at defensive strategies.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Treasury has enough funds to cover any refunds if the Supreme Court rules against President Trumps emergency tariffs, though repayments could take weeks or even a year.

The Reserve Bank of India has reduced its holdings in US Treasuries. This strategic move sees the central bank increasing its gold reserves. The shift aims to diversify foreign exchange reserves. This diversification is a response to global economic uncertainties. India joins other nations in this trend. The RBI's forex reserves remain stable overall.

Modi and Trump have spoken on the phone on eight occasions during 2025, covering different aspects of our wide-ranging partnership, external affairs ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said on Friday. Lutnick had said that India was given three Fridays to clinch a trade deal with Washington last year and that Modi had to call Trump to close it.

India's upcoming budget may target a nominal growth rate of around 10 percent. This is an increase from the estimated 8 percent for the current fiscal year. Economic growth is expected to remain strong. Inflation is also projected to rise in the next fiscal year due to base effects.

The central bank has introduced initiatives such as MuleHunter.ai to combat mule accounts used for fraudulent transactions. The AI tool delivers high accuracy and precision with significantly low false-positive rates and is currently deployed across 20 commercial banks.

India apparel exports: The industry is already under pressure after the US imposed 50% tariffs on India last August, marked by deep discounts, diversion of idle capacity to domestic brands and rerouting of export orders through neighbouring countries.

Delivering the first Bibek Debroy Memorial Lecture on the them Indian Economy: A Story of Rising Credibility, Shaktikanta Das, principal secretary 2 to prime minister, said the global economy is at an inflection point, with geopolitical rivalries, protectionist trade policies and weakening multilateral institutions reshaping cross-border commerce and investment flows.

Bank of America acquired over 2 lakh shares of MTAR Technologies for Rs 55 crore in a bulk deal, paying a 6% premium. MTAR Technologies shares surged 6.69% to Rs 2,688.30, hitting a 52-week high. The company, involved in high-precision engineering for aerospace and energy, reported a decline in net profit and revenue for the September 2025 quarter.

The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, potentially easing Federal Reserve concerns about labor market weakness. Traders now anticipate Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's final rate cut has occurred, with future easing decisions likely falling to his successor. While job growth was weaker than expected, the jobless rate decline offers the central bank breathing room.

Markets regulator Sebi on Friday proposed an overhaul of the trading-related framework at stock exchanges, aimed at simplifying rules, removing duplication, and reducing the compliance burden for market participants.

Societe Generale bought 14.33 lakh Tata Capital shares via a Rs 51 crore block deal after anchor lock-in expiry, while Marshall Wace exited an equal stake. The stock rose to Rs 359.85 following Indias largest 2025 IPO this week today

The U.S. Supreme Court will not issue a ruling on Friday in a major case testing the legality of President Donald Trump's sweeping global tariffs.

Budget Session will start on 28 January 2026 and continue till 2 April 2026. President Droupadi Murmu has approved the summoning of Parliament for the Budget Session 2026 and the Union Budget is likely be presented on February 1, a Sunday, followed by a recess for committee examinations. The session will reconvene on March 9.

T Rabi Sankar said collaboration between banks and central bank owned Reserve Bank Innovation Hub (RBIH) will both quicken and enhance the capability of these risk mechanisms.