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Will under pressure NC retain stronghold Budgam or lose it for the first time ever?

As the counting of votes for bypolls to two Assembly seats in J&K begins, it would be interesting to see if the ruling National Conference overcomes the strong anti-incumbency factor and retains its traditional stronghold of Budgam or loses it for the first time. The bypolls to Budgam Assembly seat (in Kashmir) and Nagrota (in Jammu) were held on November 11 with 50.01% polling recorded in Budgam and 74.82% in Nagrota. The bypolls were necessitated after Chief Minister Omar Abdullah vacated the Budgam seat and retained the Ganderbal constituency, while the Nagrota seat fell vacant after sitting BJP MLA Devender Singh Rana died in October last year. The Budgam seat is a high-stakes and prestige seat for the ruling NC as it was represented by CM Omar Abdullah. A total of 17 candidates were in the fray including NCs Aga Mahmood, PDPs Aga Muntazir and BJPs Aga Mohsin, all belonging to influential Shia families. The bypolls in Budgam were held amid growing anti-incumbency against the Omar government as people were dissatisfied over unfulfilled promises including job creation, installation of smart power meters, 200 units of free electricity, 12 subsidised LPG cylinders and a fair reservation policy. The discontent has fuelled anti-incumbency that could challenge NCs long-held dominance in the constituency. Adding to NCs worries, influential Shia leader and Srinagar MP Aga Ruhullah refrained from campaigning for the party candidate due to dissatisfaction with the Omar-led government. It is expected to be a close contest between NCs Aga Mahmood and PDPs Aga Muntazir, who are also relatives. Budgam has historically been a fortress for NC and the party has never lost the polls from the seat. Right from the first election for the Budgam seat in 1972 to the 2024 Assembly polls, voters of the constituency have consistently backed NC, electing its candidate every time. NC sources said the party was not in favour of giving the mandate to Aga Mahmood for the seat, but his name was cleared after insistence from party president Farooq Abdullah. Smart meter row heats up Budgam bypoll; voters lash out over Omar govt's broken power promise It now remains to be seen whether Aga Mahmood will help NC retain the seat. A victory will provide a major boost for Omars government and signal that NCs popularity has not diminished since last years Assembly polls despite opposition criticism. The win will give Omar confidence to continue with his soft approach towards the Centre. However, a loss would mark an unprecedented setback for NC. It will be a major jolt for the party that has never before been defeated from the seat. It will underscore strong anti-incumbency against the Omar government and reflect public disappointment with NCs performance and its failure to fulfil its poll promises. It will force CM Omar Abdullah to reassess his governments policies and adopt a new approach moving forward. Just as the Budgam seat holds significance for NC, the contest in Nagrota is crucial for the opposition BJP. The seat witnessed a triangular contest between BJPs Devyani Rana, daughter of late MLA Devender Rana; NCs Shamim Begum; and JKNPP president and former minister Harsh Dev Singh. For the BJP, the bypoll serves as a popularity test in its Jammu bastion, gauging whether the party continues to command voter loyalty or if the ruling NC has made inroads following its return to power. Budgam bypoll seen as litmus test for Omar Abdullah government; NC deploys full force to retain seat