Thackerays have joined hands after 20 years, but many challenges loom on the road to the BMC
The Thackeray cousins Uddhav and Raj have formally announced an alliance for the BMC and other municipal corporation elections, but it is not an easy fight, given the BJP's strong network and well-oiled machinery. Here are the top five challenges in Mumbai for the Thackerays who have reunited after 20 years. Weakened network after party's division : Following the split in the Shiv Sena, the party's once strong network was divided between the two factions. Eknath Shinde aggressively poached several old and loyal Shiv Sainiks who played a key role in getting the voters to the booth and extending all local services. The positive side for the Thackerays is the last layer a set of Marathi voters who have remained loyal to them. Getting these loyal voters to the polling booths is a challenge before the Thackerays. Depleted resources against well-oiled machinery : Napoleon once said, an army marches on its stomach; in the same way, the party's foot soldiers and local leaders march on their coffers. Local leaders are only loyal if they get concrete benefits in terms of small contracts for road bridge construction, supplying various items food, medical supplies in hospitals, etc. As Uddhav was out of power for quite a long time, the leaders who used to thrive on BMC and its related contracts were deprived, so the majority of them left and either joined the BJP or the Shinde-led Shiv Sena. The BJP, RSS, and Shinde Sena will work hard on the ground and make everyone happy with their resources, while the Thackerays will have to depend on their mega rallies. Divided Marathi voters against consolidated Gujarati, Marwari and North Indian voters : In Mumbai, there are more than 150 civic wards out of 227 where Marathi votes still make the difference between victory and defeat. In 2017, the BJP, for the first time, increased its tally from 35 to 82, while the united Shiv Sena tally decreased from 110 to 84 in the BMC elections. The BJP was earlier restricted to the Gujarati and Marwari-dominated western suburbs and some parts of South Mumbai, but in 2017, it increased its footprint in other areas as well. The BJP not only consolidated its core Gujarati, Marwari and North Indian vote bank, but massively poached Marathi votes as well. Now, the Shinde-led Shiv Sena will be a partner in this vote bank. But the silver lining for Uddhav Thackeray is that the over seven per cent vote share of the MNS will be with them in this crucial battle. Besides, the MNS cadre is very happy with the alliance with the Shiv Sena (UBT), with the strong hope of coming back to power in the BMC. Marathi manoos agenda faces diminishing returns . Raj and Uddhav Thackeray will play on the emotions of voters by recalling the united Maharashtra movement, 106 Marathi martyrs and the role of Balasaheb Thackerays Sena in protecting the Marathi manoos during riots. If the Thackerays succeed in consolidating the Marathi manoos and are able to retain the minority votes, as most of them voted for Uddhav in the Lok Sabha and state assembly elections, then they can give a tough fight to the BJP and Shindes Sena. But the problem is that the number of Marathi people who have an attachment to Balasaheb Thackeray and his speeches is dwindling. How much do the next generation listen to them to vote for the Sena on an emotional agenda? Many of them grew up with the BJPs Hindutva flavour and development work, like the metro network. Further, there will be a lot of allurements, so it is a tough task for the Thackerays to keep their votes intact. Shinde no more a pariah to Marathi voters : Deputy chief minister Eknath Shinde is no more a pariah to Marathi voters. Uddhav and Raj Thackeray will indulge in Shinde bashing, claiming he stole the party and symbol, but how many people will buy this argument? Shinde is very well accepted among Marathi voters. Shindes Sena has won 53 Nagar Panchayats, second after the BJP that won 117, while the Uddhav Thackeray-led Sena bagged only nine. The Shinde-led Sena won a majority of its posts in the Konkan region, which is the base of the Sena in Mumbai. Therefore, it is a big challenge for the Thackerays to offer the Marathi manoos something unique to get their votes.
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