Kerala local body polls: Broad narratives and ground realities
KOCHI: This has been a local-body election in which local concerns have been swept up by broader narratives. Instead of the familiar neighbourhood chatter on roads, drainage, or local development, high-voltage, state-level storylines from the dramatic episodes involving MLA Rahul Mamkootathil to the contentious gold-theft allegations linked to Sabarimala have permeated even the tiniest wards. Yet, amid this political noise, analysts insist that the final verdict will still be shaped by ground realities. In the end, it is micro-issues, visible development outcomes, and the sense of direct accountability that guide voter choices. The stakes have never been higher for the LDF, UDF, and NDA, observes Prof Pramod C R with the department of political science at Thrissur Sree Kerala Varma College. With barely six months left for the assembly elections, he notes, this contest is widely viewed as the crucial semi-final. All three fronts are attempting to frame the polls through state-level narratives driven from the top, according to Pramod. The LDF moved early to set the tone, projecting the narrative of a historic third term long before the campaign season began. They are seeking a mandate for continuity and development, with MLAs aggressively reinforcing this message at the grassroots, he explains. The UDF, compelled to counter the LDFs development narrative, has shifted focus towards the governments perceived failures. While they hope to tap into anti-incumbency, the front is simultaneously grappling with organisational weaknesses and internal discord challenges that make presenting a unified message more difficult. Meanwhile, the NDA is treating this election as an extension of its performance in the last Lok Sabha election. Its strategy is unambiguous: Expand its vote share by capitalising on recent momentum, Pramod points out. In the end, it is micro-issues, visible development outcomes, and the sense of direct accountability that guide voter choices. But despite these loud, dramatic agendas, he cautions that they may not decisively influence voter behaviour. Ultimately, people vote based on what they can see and experience tangible improvements, accessible services, and developments that affect their daily lives, he emphasises. Prof Ravindranathan P, of the department of geopolitics and international relations at Manipal University, emphasises the importance of a candidates performance in local elections. People evaluate what the ward member does and how efficiently he manages to do it. In fact, accountability is high in local polls... they are able to hold the person accountable and may even ask or question him on his failures, whereas such accountability is limited for MLAs and MPs. Rural constituencies present a more layered terrain, according to him. Welfare delivery, agricultural sustainability, local employment, cooperative sector management, and the functioning of panchayats remain central, he added. Krishnakumar K K, senior fellow at the Centre for Socio-economic and Environmental Studies (CSES), notes that in Keralas local elections, the candidate is the most important factor. Because it happens in a small area, and the major factor that comes into play is his or her appeal, accessibility, willingness to involve in issues, etc., rather than polity or development manifesto. He emphasises that trust and credibility are crucial for the people, and the ward member serves as the last-mile connectivity between the state machinery and the people. The top-driven narratives finally do not matter in the most hyper-local wards, whereas as the unit of election gets bigger, the personal appeal of the member gets diluted and other elements like politics, development agenda, winnability of the political front, etc., start getting mattered. According to Krishnakumar, the job of a ward member or councilor is extremely challenging, with minimal honorarium and little appreciation. He states, They have to be at the beck and call of the people, and they gauge the member by his willingness to do even the smallest task. Despite the swirl of state politics, the final outcome will most likely hinge on the micro-performance and personal credibility of individual candidates. In the end, the ward members effectiveness matters the most. Were they able to bring funds? Make use of state schemes? Build roads? Distribute laptops? More importantly, were they present and responsive when people needed them? Pramod adds.
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