Kerala local body poll results: Satheesans calculus, LDF slip and UDF wave
KOCHI: When V D Satheesan, Leader of the Opposition, stepped off the Vande Bharat at Ernakulam South railway station on Saturday evening, the reception was telling. Jubilant Congress workers and leaders, led by MP Hibi Eden, MLA T J Vinod and DCC president Mohammed Shiyas, welcomed him with sweets. It marked the arrival of a leader who had just overseen one of the most decisive local body performances in Keralas political history by the Congress-led UDF. Satheesan arrived in Kochi around 7pm from the state capital, Thiruvananthapuram, as celebrations continued across Congress camps following the sweeping verdict. Earlier in the day, speaking to reporters in Thiruvananthapuram, he credited the triumph to Team UDF. Yet, beneath the rhetoric of collective effort lay a series of hard political choices and shifting social alignments that reshaped Keralas electoral map. The scale of UDFs victory is unprecedented. The front swept 505 of 941 grama panchayats, 79 of 152 block panchayats, seven of 14 district panchayats, 54 of 87 municipalities, and four of six corporations. In 2020, the UDF managed to win just one corporation and 41 municipalities, while trailing the CPM-led LDF across every tier. The reversal is stark and historically rare. An uncompromising political line has marked Satheesans tenure as LoP. His unapologetic tie-up with the Jamaat e-Islami Hind-backed Welfare Party and his handling of controversies such as the case involving rape-accused MLA Rahul Mamkootathil drew sharp criticism. Yet, electorally, these decisions did not hurt the UDF. Instead, the front benefited from a consolidation of Muslim votes, particularly in north Kerala, driven by its key ally, the Indian Union Muslim League. Central Travancore told a similar story. Traditional Christian and Muslim bastions largely held firm, delivering sweep-like results across districts that had shown signs of drift in recent elections. Equally decisive was the erosion within LDFs base. Negative voting against the Left played a major role, with issues such as the Sabarimala gold theft controversy hurting Hindu sentiments. A senior Left leader privately conceded that the issue caused damage, while the Mamkootathil controversy failed to yield any political dividends for the LDF. Crucially, the long-held assumption in Kerala that the rise of the BJP would primarily eat into the UDF vote was turned on its head. This time, BJPs gains came largely at the expense of the LDF. Ezhava voters, particularly in regions such as Kayamkulam, Mavelikkara and Attingal, showed a visible shift away from the CPM, while sections of Christian voters also gravitated towards the saffron party in select pockets. Political economist D Dhanuraj, founder-chairman of the Centre for Public Policy Research, attributes the outcome to a potent mix of anti-incumbency and voter disengagement within the Left. The larger question is sustainability. With the assembly elections just months away, can the UDF carry this momentum into 2026? Congress leaders believe the perception of an impending return to power could pull back Christians who have been cautiously warming up to the BJP.
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