The Economic Times

US recession alert: Why Moodys warns of 49% risk as oil prices and weak jobs data hit economy - here's what you need to know

US recession warning 2026: Fears of a US recession are escalating as Moody's Analytics forecasts a 49% chance of a downturn within a year, a figure potentially rising above 50% due to the Iran war's impact on oil prices. A weakening labor market and softening consumer sentiment are key drivers, with rising energy costs exacerbating economic pressures.