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Too close to call: How the Mississippi Senate race turned into such a nail-biter

Mississippi is one of the reddest states in America, so this year's U.S. Senate race between Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith and her Democratic challenger Scott Colom wasn't supposed to be especially close. Now it couldn't be closer. As of Thursday afternoon, Colom was leading Hyde-Smith by a mere 1,724 votes, according to the Associated Press. That's just 0.19% of all ballots cast. As a result, the AP has yet to call the contest, even though 96% of the vote is in. Along with Alaska which also remains too close to call the outcome in Mississippi will determine whether Democrats can expand their new Senate majority beyond its current size (54 seats) by flipping even more red states than they already have . But Alaska was supposed to be a toss-up . Mississippi wasn't really on the national radar. President Trump won the state by 23 percentage points in 2024 his third straight win there. Looking ahead to the 2026 Senate race, analysts said it was a likely Republican hold . Barely anyone bothered to poll it . Yet, here we are, with Colom edging Hyde-Smith as officials tally the final votes. How did the Mississippi Senate race get so close and what happens next? Who is Scott Colom? Colom, 43, was born in Columbus, Miss., to two lawyers who also participated in politics. In 1987, his father, Wilbur, ran for state treasurer as a Republican; his mother, Dorothy, served as the first Black Chancery Court judge in their home district. Colom earned his JD from the University of Wisconsin in 2009 and went on to serve as the first Black justice court judge in Lowndes County, Miss., before becoming the first Black city prosecutor in Columbus. In 2015, Colom defeated a nearly 30-year incumbent to become the first Black district attorney elected in a majority-white voting district in Mississippi history. He has since prosecuted a number of high-profile murder and sexual assault cases. Colom gives an update about his Senate race on Nov. 4, 2026 in Jackson, Miss. Rogelio V. Solis/Getty Images In 2022, President Joe Biden nominated Colom to serve as federal judge for the Northern District of Mississippi. Leading Magnolia State Republicans including Sen. Roger Wicker and former Govs. Phil Bryant and Haley Barbour backed Colom's nomination. I have known two generations of the Colom family for over 20 years and believe Scott Colom possesses the discernment to be a fair and exemplary judge, Bryant told the New York Times . But Hyde-Smith blocked Colom's nomination in the Senate, citing support his 2015 campaign received from a political action committee funded by George Soros and claiming that he favored allowing transgender athletes to compete in girls' and women's sports. The White House characterized Hyde-Smith's concerns as spurious . In a letter to Hyde-Smith urging her to reconsider, Colom confirmed that he had signed a letter with other prosecutors condemning efforts to criminalize gender-affirming care for transgender people, but insisted that their joint statement did not comment on legislation specifically related to participation in athletics. Colom also said he had not known about Soros's contributions to the Mississippi Safety and Justice PAC until I read about them in my hometown paper. Colom's unsuccessful nomination was returned to Biden on Jan. 3, 2024. In September 2025, Colom announced his U.S. Senate candidacy. How Colom caught up Hyde-Smith, 67, is a former lobbyist and state legislator who was serving as Mississippi's agriculture and commerce commissioner when she was appointed to the U.S. Senate in 2018 following the resignation of Republican Sen. Thad Cochran. She won a 2018 special election and a 2020 full-term election, and she has served in the Senate ever since. There were signs before Tuesday that Hyde-Smith might be vulnerable to voter apathy, as one Mississippi State University political science professor recently put it . Sen. Wicker won reelection in 2024 by 25 points; Hyde-Smith's margin of victory in 2020 was less than half that. And while the only polls made public this cycle showed Hyde-Smith ahead , her leads were stuck in the single digits no survey put her support above 50%. One April Democratic poll showed Hyde-Smith trailing a hypothetical someone else 33% to 53%. Hyde-Smith speaks at a campaign event in Corinth, Miss., on Oct. 26, 2026. Madison Thorn/Bloomberg via Getty Images Regardless, Hyde-Smith seemed content to coast to reelection, barely bothering to appear on the campaign trail. But Colom didn't have that luxury and when he cut a viral campaign ad about beef prices in mid-October, the tide started to turn. Asked earlier this year about soaring costs, including the price of beef, Hyde-Smith told local TV station WLOX that all commodities go through peaks and valleys, but you have so many proteins to choose from. In the final weeks of the campaign, Colom seized on Hyde-Smith's remark about proteins to mock her with a spot featuring incredulous Mississippians grilling burgers, dining out and shopping for groceries and saying they'd rather pick another senator instead (along with other, more colorful language). The video has since racked up nearly 14 million views on Colom's X account . When the ad took off, national Democrats sprang into action. The Senate Majority PAC poured $2.2 million into the race; Senate Democrats' campaign arm contributed another $500,000. Former President Barack Obama filmed an endorsement ad. Former President Bill Clinton, former Vice President Kamala Harris and Sens. Cory Booker of New Jersey and Raphael Warnock of Georgia rushed to Mississippi to rally with Colom. In response, Republicans were forced to play defense, sending Trump to Mississippi in the final days of the campaign (along with cash infusions of their own). She done lost her damn mind. pic.twitter.com/wHPt4PSAob Scott Colom (@scott_colom) October 13, 2026 In the end, it wasn't enough to give Hyde-Smith a decisive victory on Election Day. When Trump came to Mississippi, Colom went to his event to talk to rally-goers about health care, grocery bills and gas prices. I got the best message ever for Republican voters in Mississippi, he told CNN afterward. I'm going to get you what you were promised in 2024. You were promised lower grocery prices on Day One. That's what I will fight for. You were promised no more endless wars. That's what I will fight for. You were promised the full and transparent release of the Epstein files. That's what I will fight for. According to preliminary New York Times estimates , Colom performed 19 points better among white Mississippi voters than Harris, the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee. He won new voters that is, those who didn't vote in 2024 by 25 points. What happens next The contest between Colom and Hyde-Smith hasn't been called yet because officials are waiting on two remaining batches of ballots. The first batch comes from 11 counties that have yet to report 10% or more of their returns. The other batch contains affidavit ballots, which were generally cast by people who did not present an acceptable photo ID at the polls or who had been marked as inactive on voter rolls. County clerks in Mississippi have 10 days in this case, until Nov. 13 to certify the election. Five of the counties with outstanding ballots have favored Colom, including Hinds County (the most populous in the state). Five have favored Hyde-Smith. One is a toss-up. Any mail ballots from those counties must arrive by Tuesday, Nov. 10, in order to count. As for the affidavit ballots, voters need to validate them with an acceptable ID by the same day: Nov. 10. The Colom campaign has said that roughly 10,000 to 15,000 affidavit ballots were cast this year. Colom's team believes his lead will expand once those affidavit ballots are counted. (It has already grown by more than 1,500 votes since Election Day.) Ahead of Mississippi's March primaries, incorrect Experian information mistakenly led to the inactivation of legitimate voters and inactivations have more than doubled in some jurisdictions since then. Discrepancies caused confusion and long lines at polling places on Tuesday, forcing affected voters to cast affidavit ballots. We are going to make sure every single vote has been counted, and I am confident we will ultimately flip this seat, Colom wrote on X on Wednesday morning . He added on Thursday that my campaign, alongside the [Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee] and Elias Law Group, Lisa Ross, and our great team of local attorneys, are leading the effort to ensure every eligible voter is heard. Hyde-Smith also expressed confidence on Election Night. We still don't have all the votes in, so we're not calling all of it tonight, but we're in a very good lead and I assure you, I will continue to be your U.S. Senator, she told supporters at the time. On Thursday, Mississippi Republican Party chairman Mike Hurst estimated that about 20,000 ballots had not been counted yet. We are enthusiastic about these outstanding ballots because a number of these, a significant number of these, we believe, are in and remain in Republican-leaning districts, precincts and counties throughout the state, Hurst told reporters. Mississippi is the only state in the country without a recount law. But if the margin is still razor-close next week, Colom or Hyde-Smith could challenge certain ballots in court. That would likely happen after certification on Nov. 13. Lawyers for Hyde-Smith and her campaign have formally written to Mississippi state officials to demand the immediate separation, secure custody, and preservation of all affidavit ballots, according to the New York Times a signal that they may pursue litigation if those ballots put Colom over the top. This article originally appeared on Yahoo News at https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/article/how-the-mississippi-senate-race-between-scott-colom-and-cindy-hyde-smith-got-so-close--and-what-happens-next-212946040.html