When it comes to betting on underdogs in the Premier League at non GamStop bookmakers, a bit of nuance is required. This applies not only to individual bets in the classic 3-way system for the upcoming matchday but also to season-long bets on questions like, “Who will win the championship?” In this context, practically every team except Manchester City is considered an underdog. However, in the UK, odds as astronomical as the 5001.00 offered for Leicester City’s miraculous Premier League title win a few years ago are rarely seen. Many players prefer non GamStop platforms with fast payouts for a smoother betting experience.
That said, you can almost always find an underdog bet in the Premier League on any given matchday and in nearly any scenario—simply by betting on Manchester City’s opponent. The exception, of course, is if City is playing against their main rival, a team that remains unbeaten at home and now faces the British record champions in a crucial home game.
The defining feature of an underdog bet is the comparatively high odds at non GamStop bookmakers, often starting in the upper 2-fold range and frequently promising a threefold or even fivefold return on your stake. While favorite bets attract inexperienced bettors with an illusion of certainty, underdog bets are enticing in a different way: they offer the potential for significant payouts. However, the challenge with this type of bet is that profits can only be achieved over the long term. If an underdog bet has just a 25% chance of success, this means you’ll only win one out of every four betting slips.
The advantages of betting on underdogs at non GamStop bookmakers
The big advantage of underdog bets at non GamStop bookmakers is that they offer significantly larger winnings. This is easily explained by the math. Let’s assume that if the probability of a favorite winning bet is 75% or higher, it’s a value bet, meaning it has a positive expected value. Then, if this bet comes true three out of four times, you’d end up with almost exactly zero to zero, with a marginal profit. After all, the low odds only yield small winnings. With underdog bets, however, every percentage point you exceed the probability of winning is associated with far higher winnings.
So, anyone who achieves the predicted value with underdog bets will already make a larger profit in this case alone. If this “value point” is even exceeded, this can quickly result in a significant upward swing, while you won’t have to accept any major losses on the downside. This is simply because solid underdog tips are rarely played with a stake of 3 units or even higher, but always with a manageable stake. When betting on underdogs in the Premier League, situations are also possible in which you would only need to win 20 out of 100 such bets, for example, to not only offset the loss on 100 bets, but even have a substantial profit overall. If you win less than these 20, the loss is still clearly manageable. And if you win 21, then compared to typical odds of 1.10 for the favorite, you have usually made a profit of an underdog with odds of 3.00 or even more. Admittedly, at a lower stake, the curve quickly turns positive if you succeed in 22, 25 or even 30 out of 100 such bets in a month, where significantly fewer winning tips would have been necessary to achieve a basic value. Many bettors also check out Betmac review for offshore casino fans to find additional strategies and insights.
However, it would be wrong to conclude from this that betting on underdogs is better than betting on favorites. Finally, you shouldn’t ignore the disadvantages associated with this type of betting.
The disadvantages of betting on underdogs at non GamStop bookmakers
And in this context, two aspects in particular should be highlighted.
- Dealing with the fact that the majority of your betting slips don’t work out
- Money management, which is more important than ever
Let’s take a closer look.
Point one is an important psychological factor that requires you to approach your Premier League bets with a clear mind. Of course, it would be nice if you won every single ticket, but the reality is different when you play seriously. Anyone who uses mathematics – and there is no other way to plan for guaranteed winnings – knows that the aforementioned 80 out of 100 tickets will lose at some point, while you still end up with a profit because 20 of the 100 tickets come in. However, probability has no fixed regularity and also no memory. This means that you won’t get a win every five tickets, but you can also fail to win 20, 40, 80 or even more than 100 tickets in a row. Just as you can’t throw a “6” with a dice for a very long time in a row. The higher the number of cases, the more likely all outcomes will settle at the calculated probabilities, but initially anything is possible.
It is all the more important that you keep this in mind, because it is not easy for every player to keep calm when most of their bets are losing, which is the norm with underdog bets in the Premier League. This requires not only a sharp mind to avoid a so-called “tilt” at some point, but you also have to know the golden rules of money management inside out. In other words: if you want to make a profit with underdog bets in the long term, you are not immune to having to go through longer dry spells before the winnings return. And during these dry spells, measures must be taken to avoid going bankrupt.
Conclusion
As mentioned at the beginning, it ultimately depends entirely on your personality. In this article, we’ve not only explained what you need to know about betting on favorites and underdogs in the Premier League, but we’ve also highlighted the respective advantages and disadvantages of these different approaches.
Ultimately, however, there’s no reason to commit to one or the other type of betting, because a match must be carefully analyzed before you can place a bet. The key is to calculate the expected value. Calculate value bets and convert odds into probabilities, and only place a bet when a positive expected value emerges. This can sometimes be for the favorite and sometimes for the underdog. As long as you follow the money management rules for football betting at non GamStop bookmakers, you’ll be on the safe side with both types of bets.
Image by Greg Montani from Pixabay (Free for Commercial Use)
Image Published on July 12, 2015
